The Viloo Poonawalla Indian Oaks (Gr.1) and Analysis of the days card

Hello Friends, 

                    The Mumbai Winter season is on full swing,thus comes the Ladies day with the running of the third Indian classic for the 2014/2015 classic crop....... Ten horses have accepted to run over this trip of 12 furlongs and here is my take of the race......... 

Here is the list of the winners of the last five renewals of this very race 

2014-Isn't She Special (Indian 1000 guineas-6th) 

2013-Maple Star (Indian 1000 guineas-7th) 

2012-Smashing (Indian 1000 guineas-5th) 

2011-Moonlight Romance (Indain 1000 guineas-2nd) 

2010-Jacqueline (Indian 1000 guineas-winner) 

It is quite obvious that all the five horses that have won the Indian Oaks in the last five years have had a run in the Indian 1000 guineas,thus Pesi Shroff's ward has rather taken an unconventional route to take part in this race having raced and won the Oaks at Calcutta,taking part in the Indian edition of the race 

It is one thing to stick with history and another thing to realise that with times things will change......... 

The Ante-Post favourite Tiger Tops on paper is a towering figure,she is one amongst the two distance winners and her last run in the Calcutta Derby was not a disgrace by any standards.... The trainer has opted for Colm O Donoghue and she is running very much within a week since her last start and that too after travelling,all these factors need to be taken into consideration. 

Then there is the presence of Laurita,another winner over the same distance at Hyderabad winning the Oaks there and is pitched into this race,however she would have had enough time since the last run and merits strong consideration as she is also the only other winner over this very trip...... 

Being a distance winner is not the sole criteria one should look for in the search of a winner,for example all the five winners over the last 5 years were taking their first trip over the 12f distance....... In my opinion there are three factors that would result in the outcome of the race (Class,Distance Suitability,Jockey Factor) 

It is generally believed that the speed of a guineas winner would act as a double edged sword when it takes the step up in distance to travel over 2400 mts........ There are exceptions though 

Jacqueline,the wonder filly had sweeped all four Indian classics and she was exceptional....... 

Godspeed would be aim for the double that was achieved five years back,the only winner of a Gr.1 race,this horse cannot be taken lightly as she has proved her class in a gritty fight last year.... Sired by the sensational Multidimensional,this horse should have the bloodlines to deliver over this very trip. There are some off the track events that makes this horse vulnerable,the laryngeal operation is one thing that would make doubting Thomases of even her ardent supporters. However for the record both her tracks have been satisfactory and the fact that she has Suraj Narredu who has been on a classic roll this season is on the saddle,hopes are definitely high..... 

Talking about unconventional approach,there is another horse from the same yard as Tiger Tops,Aquamarine......... Aquamarine comes into this race with a rich vein of form winning over the 10f trips in handicap races. Her manner of winning and the running style is suggestive of her staying the trip,she needs to advertise her class if she has to win tomorrow,does she posses enough of it is the ? 

Last year trainer Padmanaban sent out a winner in Isn't She Special,it was a combination of factors that aided in its victory,the tactics played a key role,Pure Allure has made the trip from Bangalore to take part in this race,there is more hope from that the magician like schooler will pull a rabbit yet again than reason according to me,nevertheless one should respect the trainers judgement 

Then there are the other horses who fit the also ran bill in the Indian 1000 guineas,as the last five years have shown that's where the danger is as 80% of the non-winners of the Indian 1000 guineas have triumphed in this race.... 

Three horses fit the bill in Laurita,Classic Moment and Westphalia 

We have already discussed about Laurita,of the other two horses 

Classic Moment comes form a sire who is known for infusion of stamina to its progenies,the plus point obviously is the jockey who along with Suraj Narredu is in form and his ability to asses a race will come handy,class is a question mark and is the 'joker' in the pack 

Then there is Westphalia,who is a summered horse like Tiger Tops and Godspeed at B'lore..... Her last two runs over a mile at two different centres in classics were suggestive of a more want of ground. She has in my opinion shown glimpses of class and a well judged race by her jockey should bring her into contention in this race,this horse runs with a serious chance in my opinion 

The unconventional Tiger Tops,the horse who has impressed me with her sheer grit and is eyeing for a guineas-oaks double in Godspeed and the highly suggestive runs of Westphalia make them the three horses to look out for in this race..... 

A very interesting race thanks to the many scenarios horses have come into this race,Tiger Tops is the best of the lot in many a punters books.... She has the class (A classic winner) the distance suitability and a jockey who is associated with the Ballydoyle stables nevertheless.... Can she be opposed? 

Its a matter of perception more than anything else...... I believe Godspeed scores over her rivals in the class factor being the sole Gr.1 winner if the lot,her third as favourite in the B'lore fillies stakes was the only defeat in her career. She is being partnered by the jockey whose classic successs this season are second to none,in my opinion despite all the news doing the rounds she should run an improved race withe respect to her last start. 

Westphalia has to prove her class,her distance suitability according to me is without any doubt is her positive and it would take a leap of faith from the jockey to ride an incredible race and if he does he can silence most of his critics.... 

I would go with Godspeed,as statistically she has a moderate chance,pedigreewise her sire has thrown good winners over this trip and has a good jockey aboard. Also I'm hoping that if she stays her natural ability to position herself so early in a race would come in handy 

My choices are 1)Godspeed 2)Tigertops 3)Westphalia 

Race 2:A class IV race over 1400 mts (4yo) 

Mystic Romance who is bred similar to Southern Emperor who inturn is closely related to Mystical came out of the maiden ranks in herast run,retaining the same jockey and being good in the trials she cannot be overlooked here 

Then there is the presence of Draco who has been good in his win last time out,another maiden winner but on this very track and a switch in jockey means he will be one to beat in this race 

There is however the challenge of two maidens in Satellite and Moneywise,the former is bred fashionably but has been way below expectations,given the opposition on offer and her recent trial spurts one could give her another chance,afterall her formlines are very good 

My Choice:#2 Satellite Win 

Race 3:A class II race over 1200 mts 

Full Moon,the prolific handicapper horse over the 5f trip has also fared reasonably well over the 6f trip and such is one amongst the main players in this race 

The trio of Providence,Ultrasonic and Wild Waves attract attention in this race,all have reasonably fair chance to feel hopeful,if I have to pick one amongst this trio it would be Ultrasonic,and he is the main challenger in the fray 

Zander who has been a very good horse formwise hit a block when his winning spree was disrupted by Solomon,the latter is no mean horse. A like through Spider-man with respect to Solomon gives him quite an edge in this race,he also has the retained jockey of the owner in the saddle and will be a tough but to crack 

A very interesting race this,my choice for this affair on preperation and form lines is Zander 

My Choice:#4 Zander Win 

RACE 5:The Gool S Poonawalla Million (Gr.II) (3yo) over 1200 mts 

One has to give a look at Zahab,she is bred in half to wonder filly In The Spotlight and the new stallion has started to come on his own,thus giving it a good outside chance in this race 

Then there is the debutant Colombian who has impressed in the tracks and Captain Courage whose last run was eyecatching and with a equipment switch to (TS-on) should see  him run well and the style of running should suit this track 

However the manner of victory of Victoria Harbour sees her through as the formidable contender in this race, has proven herself very well on debut and is my choice once again over this slightly extended trip 

My Choice:#1 Victoria Harbour Win 

Race 6:A class III race over 1400 mts 

Ephialties is the first horse that strikes the mind in this open affair,has been prepared well and should look to redeem its reputation here 

There are two promotees without being a class IV winner in the fray,look at Born To Win and Glorious Reward both belong to the same category 

The main contender however for this race is Mouasseif,who incidentally is a course plus distance winner while clearing her maiden ranks,ran a forgettable race in her last start but with change in jockey,and facing class III opposition has a good chance here 

There are a couple of outsiders looking large in Quest Of Love and Wings Of Glory,it must be wise to keep an eye on them or even include them in combination pools 

Speed King ran extremely well in the Indian 2000 guineas,he was sacrificed to be the pacemaker for his new stables illustrious stablemate and he did the job well,now cutting back in distance and class with a decent preperation on his back he is my personal fancy in this race 

My Choice:#5 Speed King Win 

RACE 7:For maiden 3 yo horses over 1400 mts 

Night Of Stars ran a little green and was unbalanced in the final few strides before losing out by a slender margin on debut,with that run benifit can hold to run a very good race here.... 

There is however a strong contingent of well bred and well prepared debutants taking on each other in this race..... 

Pesi Shroff has a couple of entries in the fray,Admirality from the deceased stallions first crop seems very well prepared for a good show on debut,the main contender in this race 

The presence of Captivate,Master Of Trinity and the got abroad in A Klass makes this race quite an open affair 

Sacred Fire is bred beautifully too,preparation is good and has a very good jockey astride and the trainer is sending out positive signals,should run well given its bloodlines 

I would go with Admirality though as he is from top yard,top rider of this centre on duty backed by very good preperations 

My Choice:#1 Admirality Win 

Have a nice day,gamble responsibly 

Days Best:Victoria Harbour 

Good Bets:Speed King,Admirality 

P.S.I have skipped races 1,4,9 due to paucity of time,if at all I get time in the morning to analyse and post I would give it a go......