Mumbai Pre Derby Day 31/01/15 Analysis and Selections

Hello Friends
                   A card of 9 races has been framed for the Pre-Derby day,here is my analysis followed by personal choices for the day 


Race 1:CLASS IV RACE OVER 1400 mts 

SOOTHSAYER-Maiden winner,third in last start as fav,Claimer with easy tracks 

Zabarwan-Third run of career,last run after a gap of an year and finished fourth with change in jockey now 

ROYAL CLASSIC-Got abroad very good American sire,tracking very well,bound for second lifetime start 

SAIL PAST-Suggestive runs asking for longer distance this season now gets it with Dashrsth in the saddle 

VICTORY DANCER-debutant,mostly tracking in race grass,not sure how it would run so better to skip and hope it doesn't spoil the party....... 

My Choice:#5 Royal Classic Win 

RACE 2:A class III race over 1200 mts 

JIMBO-lone denotee in the field,matched strides with elite company.... Third during its last run in Pune in upper class should be in the hunt 

Shygirl-winner of a handicap million during last season in class IV,gets the same rating now as it was then after the win,one good run with a good jockey switch 

BEACH GAME-winner in last start in the Lower class,has form jockey in the saddle tracked with POLYDENCES 

FLANKER-Maiden winner over 5f..... Two runs both on the board in this class and is the fluker here 

BULLION EXPRESS-Maiden winner thus scores on the class factor, mannered at Bangalore and a sole run at Pune in a million,tracking brilliantly now and at these weights and Sandesh back in the saddle after that win looks strong here 

LUCKY CHARM-Another maiden winner over 1000 and a fourth in its only run over this very trip,good chance to place 

MY CHOICE:#8 Bullion Express Win (Good) 

RACE 3:Class I race over 1200 mts 

MOON SHADOW-Lone run this season over the longer trip where it finished fifth,Tracking well after that run and with top jockey repeating cannot be ignored 

ONE KEPT SECRET-Two runs this season where in it won a class II handicap and finished sixth in a sprinters million,good springer with s form jockey 

MINT APPROACH-Same class winner in a small field at Pune,two decent runs in this class yet I feel it has three to beat here and can find one or the other on top 

MYKONOS-A very good 5f horse,the run behind Mint App is encouraging and as such is this horse is very much in hue reckoning 

MAISHA-Classic performer,cuts down in distance yet is a good performer as a juvenile over sprints...... Low weights and getting the winning jockey in the saddle [Non racing reason is that horse is under doping scanner and that makes one think yet from premier stables so can be trusted] 

My Choice:#10 Maisha Win (Good)

RACE 4:CLASS IV RACE OVER 1000 mts 

BELGIAN BLUE-cut the pace in its last run over 1400 mts,third run of its career and with that run as rehearsal and a switch in jockey has a fair chance here

SCHIEHAILLON-Bound for second lifetime start,tracking well with a class I animal has same jockey in the saddle and has a very good chance here

My Choice:#6 SCHIEHAILLON WIN

RACE 5:A Class III race over 1200 mts 

MERCHANT OF VENICE-Cleared its maiden on Derby day winning the Rattonsey Million,came into form after a long time in this season winning a class III race and now stepping up in trip with the same jockey is a strong contender given the fact that it won after a lay off and going over its maiden winning trip makes me believe that this horse had all the chances of repeating 

DREAMZ UNLIMITED-A maiden plus class IV winner with a placed run in class III makes it quite the contender who has followed the pattern to the 'T'. With the winning jockey back on the saddle cannot be neglected 

BON VIVANT-Coming out of the 1000 guineas with the same jockey in the fray,earlier winner in the same class whilst carrying low weight,last track is a little bit easy a worthy contender here 

MY CHOICE:#3 MERCHANT OF VENICE WIN


RACE 6:A Terms race for 3yo horses only 1400 mts

COSTA DEL SOL-cleared its Maiden ranks with a very classy performance over the 6f trip,tracking well after the last run and retains winning jockey 

OSTWIND-The lone got abroad in the field,this very race in its last two editions has been biased towards got abroads,good winner over 1200 mts and has a fair chance to pull it off 

ETERNAL FLAME-Bangalore run was very impressive and may well be the reason it is pitched here,absence of tracks at Mumbai is a cause for concern 

POLISHED CHROME-A like through Golden Belle and Ostwind makes it the horse on arithmetic logic the best in the field,not only that it has been tracking superbly after its last run.

My Choice:#4 Polished Chrome Win 

RACE 7:For Maiden 3yo only over 1000 mts 

ANCIENT GLORY-Bred well,tracking like a very good one,sporting silver shoes and a jockey who hasn't won this season yet is the one that can spring a surprise,keep an eye 

MISTER MAJESTIC-The sire has been doing well throwing out winners across the country to my memory,a good first run in a million. Choice of jockey is debatable,fair chance yet faces field with unknown potential 

NIOBRARA-Looks good based on its last forward run coupled with eye catching track work,good contender here 

HIDDEN SOUL-Good track works,bred with the precocious throwing Phoenix Tower,good trainer-jockey combination,good chance to clear maidens on debut

My Choice:#10 Hidden Soul Win 

RACE 8:A class IV race over 1400 mts 

LANCELOT-Ignorable last run after a lay off of nearly an year,tracking extremely well with an youngster.Has won a maiden race earlier and thus cannot be ignored in this set 

ADVANCE TO CONTACT-Moving well in the track spurts and is now getting a positive switch in jockey,pretty close to last winning handicap,keep an eye 

GOLD BAG-Won a maiden race in its second lifetime start,now stepping down in trip and is getting a claimer to lesser the winning penalty,a good contender here 

ETERNAL ROYALTY-Eventful yet successful last run,gets the same jockey to do duty again and is working very well in the track trials,with 400 mts more to travel with respect to the last start has a fair Chance to succeed 

Eduardo-Three career starts wherein the last race it lost to ASGOODASGOLD,after the last run has been subject to some serious preparation and gets positive switch of jockey,Good chance over this trip in this field

TEMPEST-Three runs this season and was on board during two of them,last run was interfered yet finished third over this same trip,with the same jockey repeating again there is positivity about this horse

My Choice:#7 Eduardo Win (Good)

Race 9:A class IV race over 1000mts 

QUICK ANGEL-Winner in its only start in its only start this season,retains the winning jockey and is in the same class,with an improved performance can tackle the penalty,keep an eye 

CHASE THE ACE-Won on its penultimate start without much fuss under a perfect ride from Trevor Patel,has been mighty consistent and although stepping down in trip may exploit the claiming advantage and is one of the strong contenders in this race 

BORN TO WIN-Cleared its maiden over the same trip at Pune,now going over the wining trip again after having a run over the 7f,the defending champion jockey is having his second start with this horse,tracking well and is a strong contender in this race 

EXTREME LOVE-Winner over this trip in last start,getting a claimer now and as such is the front runner for this race

PRAELECTOR-The last two runs are in good company and as such comes into contention in this race,has to negotiate the wider draw over the scurry and would be a relatively tough ask here,yet on form is a good contender 

PEPPERCORN-Winner of a maiden race over the same trip,with a claimer doing duty can be considered as a good outsider in this race 

My Choice:#5 Born To Win Win 

HAVE A NICE DAY,GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY




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