Mumbai races 17/11/13

Hello friends,

                        The Mumbai races are all set to start from tomorrow,here are my views and also my personal fancies for the day 

Race no 1:For horses in class IV over a mile 

In all probability the race in my opinion is between Janis Jay and Belmont! 

Janis Jay comes into this race after skipping the whole Pune season and no summering too at Bangalore,although the horse has a great formline (running second in a graded race) her layoff from competitive racing for such a long time,almost more than 200 days means one has to keep an eye on the weight charts before the race,she is a top contender in this field 

However I am rooting for the other horse .i.e Belmont,a winner over the same class at Pune over a longer distance, two  conditioning runs on the upper class and having a top jockey on board gives him enough reasons to be backed for win 

MY CHOICE:#1 Belmont for win 

Race no 2:A Race for 3 yo horses only over 1400 mts 

Very surprising to find a three horse field for this race,the very fact that Starry eyes would go to the post as an overwhelming favourite despite her bad Bangalore season makes me believe it is better to watch this race and more importantly the run of the filly for future references. Zoraavar who has proved his worth by defying the handicapper twice and is very much racing fit should give a tough time to starry eyes if she isn't at her very best on fitness grounds. Hope the mock race and subsequent trackworks made her for and ready to go. 

My choice:No bet 

Race no 3:A class II sprint over 1200 mts 

Port Blair is eyeing for a fourth win on a row but now in a distance he hasn't done too weep before at 1200 

Emerald valley who happens to be the only classII winner in this set will be the horse that can claim to glory,but for the prescence of two 3 yo horses in Remember Me and Rosie Sunshine 

On preparation weights and even the unbeaten record over this distance makes Rosie Sunshine an overwhelming choice for this race,but yet again I have a very strong feeling about Remember Me,not seen in tracks after its last run yet if at all anything his last two runs were,they were suggestive. The two horses on paper are quite evenly matched if weights are taken into account based on their previous runs,but what makes me believe Remember Me should have it good is the track itself,yes his running style would be better suited for this track and with a lil bit of luck can score in this class. 

My choice:Remember Me for win 

Race no 4:A class I race over 1400 mts 

Again a race which has two three year olds and one amongst them a Gr.1 winner,Alaindair unlike STARRY EYES did nothing wrong at Bangalore,gave his trainer and sporting owners a dream run at the classics,he was then rested after his campaign and the big IF is if he is ready and fit or is this race a take it easy run for the star colt? Also is he ready to take on well experienced class I horses of the older lot? For all the ifs and buts the aura surrounding him is huge,that he would be available at unbackable odds! So lets leave him alone let him win or have a run and lets just observe this run for the future. 

This is a six horse field,which mean we will get decent place odds on the other horses,there are two lower class winners in Papakura and Silver Arrow from the Pune season running on promotion here but they may find this race a little difficult for their liking 

Star of Gibraltar after running behind the invincible Storm Tracker over 7f terms race now finds itself in class I company over 1400 and so does Manyatta which after running a close third to Blue Ace finds itself in contention for place.

But winston is seen to be putting up some fine work in the track this last week,that too with horses of good repute,that makes me believe that a place bet given the last run of Winston which was in terms company as well and his recent trackwork should be a justifiable place bet despite the jockey not inspiring much greater confidence 

My choice:Winston for place 

Race no 5:A class IV race over 1200 mts 

Three 3 yo horses are in the fray,and along with them there is Samay Balwan too in the mix to make this race interesting. 

Isadoro had once deadheated with Mint Aprroach and after that had run two dismal races in superior fields,can it win here in this realatively easy set is something that we all have our own opinions on. It is true that he has seen better company and is a very strong contender 

The other two 3 yo in action would be My freedom and Ancient Warrior ! The latter has an edge amongst the two if going by their previous run in the same race,I had fancied Ancient Warrior to put up a good show but somehow he found his galloping mood a bit too late in the race,thus with a change in jockey to Neeraj who had incidentally won on this horse in its last but one run,I prefer this horse over the other two. 

My choice:Ancient Warrior for win 

Race no 6:A class III race over 1400 mts 

Sheer Class which posted a commanding start to finish victory and Beforememoryfades which also won quite easily on its last run are the two top contenders for this race,both have won their last starts well and the former is believed to be a strong classic contender by some. 

But one should no overlook the possibilities of Warhorse a fantastic winner as an juvenile on this very track last season stopping the clock at a very good time,his forward run over the derby trip where he lead the field for nearly 1200 mts of the race makes me believe that he has it in him to cause an upset here,with a change in jockey from its previous run and also some suggestive trackworks I guess Warhorse is worth an e/w bet 

My Choice:War Horse for an e/w bet 

Race no 7:A race for 2 yo horses 

Honestly I like baby races but this one just seems like the one I have to skip. The late Dancing Forever by tomorrow may have had its first winner as a sure on the Indian Turf! Lets see which one is it going to be 

My choice:No bet 

Race no 8:A race for class V horses over 1400 mts 

Quite honestly the last run of Sydney was one to note as for some part of the race did lead the race only to be defeated quite later on,on the basis of that run has a decent chance to score here 

Ganghorr seems like the default contender here,has run over longer distances too and will be in the thick of things 

Star gazing now with the services of a better jockey also comes into the picture,but the last run of Bella Figura was suggestive of a good show over an extra yard and on that count  feel that it has a good chance to win this race,had some good tracks too 

My choice:Bella Figura for win 

Day's Best:Remember Me 

Double:Belmont-Ancient Warrior 

Upsetter:War Horse 

Have a nice day,gamble responsibly