Analysis and selections for Mumbai Races 08/12/13

Hello friends, 

                   Mumbai races on Sunday features Gracias Saldhana million among other races,here is my analysis and personal fancies of tomorrow's races 

Race no 1:Class V race over 1400 mts 

A typical lower class race to start the proceedings 

Rock The Turf is a horse that has run with some very good horses,first run at Mumbai and hasn't been tracked well,yet appeals on age and relative class here,the worry is that this horse hasn't been visible on tracks after its last run and also has a run jockey aboard. So I guess it is worth watching its run here 

The other youngster Universal Joy which ran a forward race last time out,now takes a drop down in distance and a switch in jockey. This horse may well be the favourite and the horse to be beaten here 

But there are two older horses in the fray that may be a hard nut to track,both from the same yard in Stella and Tuscania. 

Of the two although Stella whose last run is best forgotten has earlier tried a start-finish attempt over the same distance and finished second,has a fair chance with the scales loaded hugely in its favour 

But Tuscania which has had a feel of the Mumbai track in its last run,a good fourth over 1200 mts,should improve on that show in this distance,shapes as a good e/w bet on the opener of the day. 

My Choice:#6 Tuscania e/w bet 

Race no 2:Class I race over 2000 mts 

The dual classic winner Jeremiah will go to the post in literally unbackable odds,which makes it a virtual 3 horse race for place (my understanding is that place odds will be akin to win odds in a 3 horse race) 

On that count one has to select the best horse among the three 

Master Shifu played second fiddle and set the pace for silver arrow on its last start,now with 2000 mts to travel may well do the same job and can fire out. 

Of the other two Rodeo which beat the classy Native Kinight on its last start over a two mile affair is a more serious contender now in this race for place 

But I feel Astapi with all its might and the company it has seen and the distance suitability should help it earn a place here. Not to mention its tracks are suggestive too 

My Choice:#1 Astapi for Place 

Race no 3:A class V race over 1400 mts

The prescence of the international superstar jockey in Oliver Peslier (a winner of of four Arc Are Triomphe's) makes it an interesting race for me,even though a class V race it will be good to see the famous intl jockey in action. 

There are some youngsters in the fray and as none of them have shown any promise,i will opt for an older horse here

Note:Caesars wife is bound to improve if one goes by its recent tracks

Vaile Rouge and Brave Fighter,have had a run benifit this Mumbai season,the former appeals of the two horses. 

Midnight Lady which also has a run benifit,now enjoys the services of a pretty decent jockey and lower weights,can place here and may upset 

But again I may be wrong here,but I feel we are ready to witness Mesmeric win here (I usually don't fancy a foreign rider to win his very first mount) but has tracked recently and that too with a higher class animal and with a good jockey aboard should sustain in the straight unlike its last outing 

My Choice:#1 Mesmeric for win 

Race no 4:A race for 3 yo maidens over 1000 mts 

Rajsamman which failed under the handling of Suraj Narredu on its last outing is now entrusted to the stable rider Kaviraj Singh. Has finished second twice and both the times was collared in the straight due to its tactics,can it sustain the Mumbai straight is the ? 

Thus Pesi's debutant Peritomoreno is the default contender here as he comes from a top yard,with stable jockey atop will run a bold race 

But Star Benevolent which drifted out on its last run now comes into this race with the benifit of two mock races with some very good horses,horse should be fit and ready. With C.S.Jodha atop shapes as the best chance bet for the day. 

My Choice:#5 Star Benevolent for win 

Race no 5:A race for 2yo horses over 1000 mts 

Fiesty Lass which found Maisha too good in its last run is the favourite here,with the benifit of a run and getting back the same jockey on the saddle has a decent chance to score. 

I am seeking for value somewhere else in this field of babies,lets look at the other contenders here 

High Expectations has been tracking very well,its last track spurt is highly indicative and like its name I have same kind of feelings on him 

Frankanella is also tracking well and has put in some good work with a class III animal in Brindaban,has a good chance here 

Ladybird also seems like having a decent chance in this race,jockey is firing these days with new found panache and may very well be in the fighting line. 

The dark horse in this field is Leontine,as this horse is from a nice dam and is also working extremely well (worked with demonstrator a class II horse) can spring a surprise 

High Expectations is the one that has a top jockey aboard and also tracking well,draw is on the outside but should put a brave show despite that,Frananella and Fiesty Lass should run close. Upsetter will be right there too

My Choice:#1 High Expectations for win / Leontine (upsetter) 

Race no 6:A class III race over a mile 

Amistad a winner that too an easy winner over a mile before playing pacemaker in its next two runs,had a run over 2000 mts this season and is the horse to be beaten here. 

The ones that can do it are Rekindle,who was a winner over a 1200 mts million and now takes a step up in distance with a change in jockey to Fr.Da.Silva,with a mockrace with the derby hopeful To The Manor Born and classic winner Amelia can bound to improve here 

But the horse they all have to beat here is Aigaion,here are my reasons 

1)Its last run in the upper class where it moved late and failed to collar Mint Approach yet had the better of THE MINISTERIAN (who got the better of Amistad) 

2)Positive Switch of Jockey 

3)Its mock race where it finished second to Starry eyes and ahead of Alaindair. 

The negatives are the weight it carries and its age yet I feel this horse should defy the weights and put up a good show. At any odds above 18/10 deserves a decent bet according to me 

My Choice:#1 Aigaion for Win 

Race no 7:The feature race of the day,A terms race over 1000 mts 

There are a lot of theory going all around with respect to this race. 

Some say that Dancing Phoenix will find it difficult against these set of opponents 

While others feel that A three year old on the incline running at this distance as its forte should be one here. 

Dancing Phoenix is a beautifully bred 3yo horse which is as good as invincible over this distance,but I too agree that over this distance against some seasoned campaigners may find this race a bit difficult to win,will salute the horse if this wins and there is no denying the fact the heart wants this horse to win after all who doesn't want to see a potential superstar taking its first real leap towards being called a great of the sport. 

Thus it brings the other three horses I see as possible threats into contention 

Ishpingo-has already got the better of the youngster before,will it find the distance apt is a ? The trainer in my opinion is a specialist at sprint races,with the relative weights and the field here,has an outside chance 

Nefyn will like the Mumbai straight more than anybody else,is a late galloper and if alighted to the task at hand at time by Jimmy can make mincemeat of this field (has oodles of class) but for its poor form everything is right for this horse 

But friends Sharaarat is a horse that I consider as a very good sprinter,has been in rousing form oflate and should exploit that form along with experience and make a race out of it. Should finish in 1-2-3

My Choice:#5 Sharaarat for win/place 

Race no 8:Class IV race over 1400 mts 

Archimedes,the horse from Pesi's stable is the one to be beaten here,gets a positive switch in jockey and also has been active on the trail tracks. 

Superlicious also get a jockey switch and at bottom of the scales may pose a danger 

Fontainebleau and Grand Duke both previous winners also have something or the other going for them,may make things interesting here 

But Shy Girl which was a winner during the last Mumbai season over 1200 mts has been prepared very well,with that in it has a fighting chance here,has a good draw and a decent jockey aboard,can dish out a splendid performance here 

My Choice:#1 Shy Girl for Win 

Race no 9:A class IV race over 1000 mts 

Ganganam Style which is in some sort of a controversy Is one amongst the youngsters that everyone has to try and beat here. 

Saturday Affair which returns after a long lay-off of nearly an year is back to its winning weights,yet the lay off can have an impact 

Spark of Diamond is also putting in some good runs and may very well be the surprise package here 

But Gran Amigo has put in some decent runs in its previous two outings and the drop in distance should suit its running style and thus stands a good chance here to win 

My Choice:#6 Gran Amigo for win 

Days best:Aigaion 

Double:Mesmeric-Shy Girl 

Have a nice day,gamble responsibly