INDIAN 1000 guineas day-Mumbai 15/12/13

Hello Friends, 

                   The first Indian classic for the season 2013-2014 is all set to roll,the card which features the race also has 8 other races. Here is my analysis and personal preferences for the day. 

Race no 1:A class V race over 1000 mts 

Nirbhaya,the lone 3 yo in this field hasn't done anything till date and to improve dramatically and score here would mean we are in for a shocker early on in the day 

The winner in most probability should arise from Showers of heaven (forward run last time out and now with dropdown in distance and positive jockey switch) New Star (whose positive switch in pilot coupled with its excellent last spurt) Song of Africa (has decent form to go by and the only one in my list of contenders to have a run benifit) and St.Barts (again has an advantage due to the claimer on top) 

St.Barts has some positives going into this race,the distance suitability factor is a huge positive,its running style on a classic day will be suited especially as its drawn on the inner side and the jockey aboard is a decent claimer who has good form this season

Thus on that count a bet can be justified and hope for the best! 

MY CHOICE:#6 St.Barts for win 

Race no 2:Class V race over 1400 mts (4yo+) 

Run Like The Wind and Dream Yuga will be in the thick of betting action thanks to the assistance offered by top notch jockeys. 

Electra which is a winner of 2 races and along with Run Like The Wind makes it a race where there are only two previous winners in the race! 

But for the absence of any recent form I am of the opinion that maiden horses also stand a chance to win this race. 

Binzz and Prize Fighter do not impress me 

Ashwa Yodhaa going by that prince had finished third over a mile this Mumbai season,with that benifit of a run this season can be expected to put up a decent show 

Laurus Tikati is lying very low on the scales,last run finished third after a forward run,don't be surprised if it improves on that run. 

The fact that Ashwa Yodhaa has a run benifit this season and a fairly poor set to tackle this time around has a decent chance to score here,as the field is small and place payouts will be good too,I will take an e/w chance on this horse 

My Choice:#6 Ashwa Yodhaa for win/place 

Race no 3:A class I race over 1400 mts 

Monza which was fancied by some during its last outing over 1200 mts suddenly dropped out of contention,then after that has been given a mock race and if all is well is a serious contender for the top spot here,especially with its late burst of speed it showed in one of its last runs over 1200 mts 

But Manyatta is a horse that has matched strides with the classic contenders of its age,although carrying top weight here has had a run this season behind Silver Arrow and on that count and a top jockey astride is the horse to be beaten here 

Papakura is a 7 furlong wonder,came up the handicap scales and with the positive switch of pilot cannot be ignored,tracks are decent but I would wait and watch how this horse performs here 

That leaves me with Scarlet Pimpernel,which is a good horse by any means from the top yard,gets Zervan back in the saddle and has been putting in some suggestive tracks

On a closer note the race seems to be between Manyatta and Scarlet Pimpernel,the former is no mean horse but the latter can pip it solely because of the distance suitability and the pull in weights 

My Choice:#3 Scarlet Pimpernel for Win 

Race no 4:A class II race over 1000 mts 

Victorious March which scored its victory last time out in a very fluent manner,in the same class retains the same winning jockey,despite the penalty expect him to put a good show 

Port Blair which comes into reckoning here hugely due to its third behind the too good Rosie Sunshine,now gets a positive switch in pilot,again faces youngsters here and it can work against it 

Talking about youngsters we have Rio who gets a 5 kg claimer and will be looking to reverse the verdict it got last time against Victorious March and Deep Diver which hasn't been worked after its last win,I feel will struggle at this distance 

Thus it makes me believe WAYOUT who has two wins out of two starts,now finds itself in a class II handicap,its style of running and the weights it carry may very well work for her,my only concern is the odds,is a good bet around 80p if less than that I will watch this race. 

My Choice:#6 Way Out for win 

Race no 5:A class III race over 1200 mts 

I may be proved wrong if I ignore horses like Que Sera Sera and Edwina but it is logical to look at a winner from the quartet of youngsters 

Ultrasonic,Trisara,Yellowzone and Victoria Falls 

Victoria Falls will certainly have a lot of followers,its first victory when it was a maiden was simply overwhelming,then ran a million race over 1400 and dropped back. Now for the first time in a handicap race and because of the low weights has a fair chance 

Trisara which got the better of QuickFire over 5f is now stepping up in class distance and also retains the same jockey,logical choice for this race 

Of the two Shapoor Mistry horses,I am having a bias towards Ultrasonic simply because it is a same class winner and then failed at a terms race to way out,now back to handicap class switch to the retained foreign jockey of the owner with the last two spurts being decent,shapes as the best chance bet of the day 

My Choice:#4 Ultrasonic for win/Place 

Race no 6:A class IV race over 2000 mts 

This 2000 mts race may well be the twist in the tale race for the day,simply because it can surprise you! 

Dreams of You failed to hold on Snowing the other day,the manner in which it was defeated and again carrying back breaking weights now makes me feel a win is tough 

Its stable-mate who is making a late debut Amazing Grace 

Over this trip may very well need this run,although prepared extremely well can't say with confidence that it can win (last year Trainer Shroff made a late debut with Colossus and won over 2400 mts,its not impossible yet I am having my reservations) 

Before we look at the other youngsters in this race please make a note of Savage Garden as this horse in this very class has run a good second to Negotiator at Pune,with the Mumabi straight even more suitable can place and don't be surprised if it shocks the field too 

Of the other youngsters Penny Lane whose running style over a mile is suggestive of a good show over this distance also gets a switch of jockey and as such on these weights has a fair chance to have a say at the finish 

and so does Giant Luck as its last track is very suggestive of a good show over this distance and so is its running style,thus is my personal choice for this race 

My Choice:#9 Giant Luck for an e/w bet (upset) 

Race no 7:The Indian 1000 guineas (3yo) Gr.1 over a mile 

13 fillies have lined up for this illustrious Indian classic,this years edition on paper looks like an open race with only little selerating some top notch horses. 

Amelia-winner of the Fillies championship during Bangalore summer,then won the Hyderabad fillies stakes too,suddenly went out of the scene,subsequent mockraces showed its not upto its old form,has class written all over it and with all the speculation not bothering is the horse to be beaten here. 

I have discounted a lot of horses for various reasons and there are only 4 horses I think that can possibly get the better of her 

Of the four two are her stablemates in Circle of Life and Mariinsky 

CIRCLE OF LIFE stumbled on its last race and finished second to the classy Murioi,ran a good second to Jerimiah at Pune Derby. Gets saddle support from the one and only Richard Hughes 

Mariinsky-third in the PBMM,won Calcutta fillies trial and a winner at the Bangalore 1000 guineas,will love the Mumbai straight,is in rousing form gets regular partner astride and will the travel taken its toll on her and is the only ? 

Pesi Shroff has three best horses in the race. 

The other two horses that can make the finish interesting are 

Beforememoryfades-unexposed sparingly raced filly,being ridden by the French Ace . Clocked good timings on her last win and can she win a classic is my only doubt! Company seems tough but commands attention 

And so does 

Starry Eyes-regarded the best filly when last Mumbai season ended,second at PBMM and won the fillies stakes at Mumbai winter,miserable failure at Bangalore. Rested whole Pune season,had some good work preps before her first appearence on the track and won well,has that class factor and only because of that ignoring her Bangalore misery! 

Trance,Keukenhof and Isnt she special can surprise on their day and tomorrow I guess is not theirs 

My money will be on Starry Eyes,simply because I believe the Multidimensional filly lives this track and has abundant class to win here. Also friends don't underestimate Amelia. 

My Choice:#12 Starry Eyes for win 

Race no 8:A race for 2yo maidens over 1000 mts 

Himalayan Dancer is now being tracked with some class II horses after its debut run,and now with stronger saddle support can prove to be quite handful in this race 

Kazuri also after an exposure has now been entrusted to stables top jockey and is the horse to watch out for here 

Also War Command which is now being tracked in a regular intervals and with some nice spurts against its name demands consideration here. 

The surprise package here is Strawberry Crush,do add them in your pools 

But with being so regular in the tracks please do watch for the weights and looks and take a call on War Command 

My Choice:#4 War Command for win 

Race no 9:A class V race over 1000 mts 

Zoe which finished a good second last time out is the horse to be beaten here,with Sandesh in the saddle can hope to run a good race 

Lucky Red also gets a change in jockey and has a fair chance to succeed 

The presence of Princess of love and Mambo Magic are a bit of a concern for the older horses especially as both have failed to impress in their last run that cannot be held against them 

The former especially has the pull in weights and if it hits the front can make this race very interesting indeed 

 

My Choice:#8 Princess of love e/w 

Day's Best:Scarlet Pimpernel 

Good bets:Ashwa Yodhaa,Ultrasonic,Starry eyes 

Upsetter:Giant Luck,Princess of love 

Have a nice day,gamble responsibly