Pune races 25/08/2013 Analysis and choices

Hello Friends, 

                    A card of 9 races have been framed with the graded Treptin Fillies and Mares Stakes as the feature event of the day. 

Race no 1:Class IV race (4yo) 1200 mts 

Four debutants take part in the opener of the day in a field of eleven. 

Of the horses that have run before Sombero which has two mock races in its preparation of which a good mock race (4/7) behind Amelia and Dark Knight who has a run during the last Mumbai season and was entered and withdrawn earlier this season seem good. 

Zille Ilahi makes its debut here,this runner has some good tracks to go by and will be ridden by Malcolm Kharadi and another debutant which catches the eye here is Tanusha which is seemingly working well on the tracks with the same jockey who is riding this horse 

Thus I am inclined to take a chance on Tanusha which makes its debut here and seems to be well-prepared for a winning debut 

My choice:#8 Tanusha (win) 

Race no 2:Race for maiden 3yo (1600 m) 

Fleetwood Mac,Indiacation and Infallible have all run and placed atleast once this season,of which indiacation looks to be a top contender here as it finished second to Falco Nero (which won again on its subsequent start) infallible although unplaced in its last run ran a shade under 2 lengths behind the winner after being boxed along the rails in its last run,gets a change in jockey here and Fleetwood Mac who placed behind Indian Touch in its first run this season is working good on the tracks too. 

But they all have to beat Cirlce of life,this got abroad filly ran a good second to Falcon on debut and ran third behind Starty eyes in the fillies championship during the Mumbai winter season,with Imran Chisty to guide its fortunes looks like the to shed its maiden class here

My choice:#5 Circle of Life (win) 

Race no 3:A class V races (1800 mts) 

Three horses Blue Knight,Perfect Strength and Carpe Diem look like the possible contenders here 

The first and second named horses clashed against each other  earlier this season with the latter having the upper hand in the same distance,there is a slight difference in weights carried and Blue Knight has to give one kg less than the last time to Perfect strength yet based on the running style and margin of victory Perfect strength appeals to me here 

Carpe Diem is the one which can handle this distance better but its recent form is not impressive yet don't be surprised if it wins as the set seems weak 

My choice:#3 Perfect Strength for win 

Race no 4:Class III race over 1400 mts 

In this field of 9,there are two promising 3 yo's in the fray in Majestic Reward and Mint Approach

Majestic reward made its debut on Bangalore and won pretty impressively and was shocked at the post by To the Manor Born during its second run,has a change of jockey to Dashrath Singh and has a decent chance here 

But he takes on Mint Approach who after winning its debut on a dead heat went on to win the million in its next start beating Alaindair (who won two classics after that) and on that form like should canter home here 

My Choice:#4 Mint Approach (win) 

Race no 5:A race for maiden 3yo over 1000 mts 

Four debutants are here in a field of eleven,of the horses which have run before Sansani thanks to its last two runs appears to be the prime contender here,has a good trackform after that run and has a good in-form jockey on board 

Natalian Express who ran third on his previous start during this season now gets a positive switch in jockey,after its third to Trisara not so long ago comes into contention here 

Intesar has three runs so far in the Mumbai season,its last run is a notable one as it was forward in a million,now in a maiden event can hold better chances 

Of the debutants,Capilano and Superlicious are the ones that seem like having a good show here and the former looks to be prepared well and can spring a surprise. 

But Intesar begs a chance here purely based on its previous run and also add to that the jockey-trainer combination is working well this season,thus deserves an e/w chance 

My choice:#7 Intesar for an e/w bet

Race no 6:The Threptin fillies and Mares Stakes (Gr.3)

Eight horses take part in this graded race and based on my reading of the race the main contenders are 

1)Maple Star-winner of the Indian Oaks Gr.1 in a start to finish manner,that automatically makes her the prime contender here,the terms of the race are such that she has to concede weight to others,the trip will suit her most no doubt and has her regular partner in B.Sreekant in the saddle 

Song Dynasty who has finished behind in the Maple star in the Indian Oaks is receiving a Chunk of weight from her,but she may find the distance sharp for her liking and her Bangalore season was a near disaster,if at all she finds her old form she has the pull in weights in her to upset all calculations 

Panamera which is yet to run on Pune track has had two wonderful seasons at Bangalore,the winter season saw her scoring some wins and during Bangalore summer has run behind AN ACQUIRED TASTE and Ocean and Beyond,and on that form line and the weight has a decent chance here 

Neona:no doubt there is a question popping in my mind that will the horse stay the distance? She ran fourth in the Indian 1000 gns behind Vijay's Pride after showing the way for a major part of the race and weakening thereafter,but the field she is against is a tad inferior in my opinion,if the pace is slow to begin with and if the jockey can persevere with the horse till the end,she will definitely have a say at the finish,mind you she is yet to go down at this track,but there are a lot of it's and but's which have to go in her favour. 

The rest of the field has horses like Capital attraction and Auburn Beauty who are classic placed too,thus will prove to be a competitive race 

I feel maple star is the horse to be beaten here,she may call the shots from the start and the horse that goes past her will be the winner,of the three other horses discussed Panamera has run twice that too closely behind An Acquired Taste,which made mince meat of Maple star over a slightly longer trip,thus logically Panamera has better chances to pull off a win here. 

My Choice:#7 Panamera (e/w) 

Race no 7:Class II race over 1200 mts 

A very competitive race this,but in my opinion Pitbull and Catharsis although seem like contenders here the race may very well be confined to Visionist,Monza and Sharaarat

Monza no doubt is a good sprinter,who placed in the upper class too and now coming down in class with a change in jockey. Running its first race of this season 

Visionist has finished behind Monza earlier during the Mumbai season and is now placed better in weights when compared to their earlier runs and has a good jockey on board 

Shaararat who is also working its way up had finished second on its first run of this season,now with a claimer on top has a good chance to get back to winning ways

My choice:#3 Shaarart for win 

Race no 8:A race for maiden 3 yo over 1000 mts 

Mykonos who was withdrawn last time out after running a good mock race is now fancied again,on preparations and all logic is the horse to beat here 

Arch Duchess gets a change in jockey to Imran Chisty here and one thing that I noted with this horse is that during its Bangalore summer stint it failed to register a win may be because it finds 1100 and 1200 mts beyond her compass,the very fact that she had all forward runs makes me believe that this trip would be optimum for her and thus can take a chance bet 

My choice:#6 Arch Duchess for win 

Race no 9:Class IV race (1200 mts) 

Mahiki on its second to Gangnam style looks like a top contender here,but it is penalised five points and can it able to defy it is a ? 

Of the other horses Stars on board and Holiday dancer both winners on their last starts (the latter during the Mumbai season) have a good chance here 

Erotic flame with a claimer looks a danger purely on weights it carry now,may upset here 

But in my opinion the race is confined to Strategy and Mateus Rose  

The last run if Mateus Rose in the upper class is ignorable,has a good chance here but my personal fancy is Strategy as its third behind Ainra was a good effort and add to that gets a hard rider in A.Asbar to guide its chances

My choice:#2 Strategy for win 

Day's Best:Mint Approach 

Double:Circle of life-Sharaarat

Have a nice day,gamble responsibly