The Deccan Derby (Gr.1)

The second Derby for this years classic crop,the winner was sighted last time by many except a few skeptics last time at Bangalore,but today the field is more competitive and thus we are in for a good race,classics in my opinion are won and lost by strategies by the astute trainers 

Today's race has 10 runners,and most of them going over this trip for a first time. (Top Commander has travelled beyond) and this makes it the sole criteria that changes the handicapping equation of this race 

It is not quite relevant at Monsoon Derby's but much more relevant during winter when the step up is 800 mts from the guineas trip 

Two things will suggest if the horses can stay the extra 400 mts today,it is the pedigree and the style of running (which is notoriously deceptive in some cases) 

Bold Majesty will go into this race with what I see as probably the most supported horse in this race,it has travelled nine furlongs well and won too with a good dash at Bangalore earlier in a handicap race,and also over the same trip at Bangalore Derby,his last win where he swept past them all was eye-catching and has the same jockey aboard who in my opinion is in his best form (or perhaps the classic touch) 

Top Commander comes into this race with two races over a trip more than 9 furlongs and now being ridden by a top jockey of the Southern Racing circuit.It is bred well and it has lacked class in what we have seen,yet cannot underestimate this horse as it comes from a trainer who sent out a class V handicap winner and won a classic at Mysore 

Spreadeagle is bred well,has travelled 9f before and in my opinion is on the up,should improve in this run. One of those horses that can provide value in this race,keep an eye on it because the way he won in his last win at Blr was quite impressive to the eye

Feliciana is out of Ace,whom I normally don't prefer over a trip of 1600 at classics,but she comes from a yard whose master is a wizard of a strategist,with Sandesh atop and a decent third to the too-good GodSpeed in her last run,she has all the chances to do it all the Way here 

Coming to the local contenders,Baashgar will be the surprise package in my opinion,this horse from freshmen sire Kingda Ka cannot be overlooked as I feel his class is yet to be tested but with a top rider and what seems like a decent breed,has a fighting chance in this set 

Silver Phantom,I started this discussion by telling you that running styles are notoriously deceptive,he hits the front and his running style suggests that he will be found wanting over this trip,hope I am not proved wrong. His sire had Versaki a classic winner at India,most recently Silver Arrow who promised a mighty lot but for his gate manners would have made a mark,so as far as the bloodlines are concerned he is second to none

Veloz and PANACHECORN are rank outsiders in my opinion and if any of them win here they will certainly crash the gate 

Now coming to the local champion Trainers yard,who hasn't won this Deccan Derby (his only Derby triumph was with Tintinnabulation at the Winter Derby) has two horses here 

Supreme Fairy has lost to Silver Phantom earlier this season over a shorter trip,this daughter of MultiDimensional should do well over this trip,does she posses class is a million dollar question,has the services of ace jockey of this centre and cannot be overlooked 

Culebra is a horse that has put me in a lot of confusion,most classics held thus far have franked Be Safe's form,she ran a good second to GodSpeed too. I feel she comes into this fav with arguably the best formlines. What bothers me is that her sire Phoenix Tower is known to throw speedy customers and haven't yet produced a classic winner. Yet her running style which I am a little bullish about suggests that she can get this trip with ease (Note:She has done it before at Bangalore) so she scores over at formlines and the distance factor. She has a good jockey aboard too and the only chink in her armour is her pedigree 

Personally I feel Feliciana who is on the up and Culebra to be two horses that can fare well here,I hope that Be Safe's form gets franked once again and my personal fancy is Culebra in what seems to be an exciting race in prospect 

MY CHOICE:#9 Culebra Win 

INVESTMENT PLAN

BANKROLL:46850 

CULEBRA WIN 1500 

CLOSING BANKROLL:45350 


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