Pune 23/08 Analysis and selections

Hello friends,  

                    A card of seven races has been framed for the day,here is my analysis and selections for the  day ! Starting from today will like to re-Introduce the betting plan again ! This is entirely a personal exercise and also the means of self assessing myself ! Will start with a bankroll of 30 grands! Lets see how it pans out! As I would be purely concentrating on Pune and Mysore races,the odds displayed on the results Coloumn of Indiarace.com will be taken for calculation purposes ! 

RACE NO 1:A class V race over 1200 mts (5yo+)

An interesting race this,primarily because the winner in its last outing in Glorious Crown gets penalised by 5 kgs and now is seen running with 5 kgs off thanks to the claimer on top ! Would have been worth a chance if the distance was 5 furlongs ,anyhow this horse is the main contender for this race 

What he has to take care of three horses,Flying Kiss,Answer My Prayers and Donata. The first named is well placed on handicap this time,has run two good races last season at Pune and can expect to win here 

The jockey on board in the second named horse has a record of 2 wins and a second to his credit in three lifetime starts,but then its the horse that has to do all the running! An upsetter here 

However,my way of thinking is that Donata now had the best chance to clear its maiden tag,last run was second to the too good Delightful Lady,retains the same jockey on board and with the advantage of that run has a fair chance to come triumphs here and is my personal choice 

My Choice:#6 Donata win 

RACE NO 2:A class II race over 1600 mts 

Small field and an overwhelming favourite ! Mint Approach is certainly on paper the best horse in the field,found a lot of horses in its earlier starts too good,still made up to class I. Now running on demotion with the best saddle support possible in India. Change in equipment to Blinkers should taken into account ! 

Three other horses in the fray have had a start this season,Janis Jay appeals purely on the weights and the jockey on board ! Celtic King will definitely like the distance but the horse to watch out for is Sailor

Sailor because it is the horse coming into this race with impressive form,will relish the distance and has been pretty active on the tracks! This jockey may well have to judge the pace perfectly as small field races would always be messy ! A point to note is that the same jockey has won aboard this horse and if one decides to play against the hot fav,this has to be the horse 

My Choice:#4 Sailor for win 

RACE NO 3:A class V race over 2000 mts 

A test of endurance for horses in the lowest class ! There are only two youngsters in the fray,again no prizes for guessing who is the better of em,The Myth is a horse who is out of Dancing Forver who in my memory has only one runner who has gone beyond a mile and lost the race,you all will know who I am talking about ! Shivalik Storm the PBMM winner ! Will one horse make it a conclusion ? Well I have a feeling that the staying ability is at doubt 

So the winner should be from the older horses ! 

Four horses among them catch my attention they are Chasing Dreams,Copper Glow,Arzaan and Morals 

Sandesh has been repeatedly alloted this horse,Multidimensional's usually relish the step up in distance plus this horse has the benifit of a run this season and also strong saddle support ! A moral bet in this race 

Also keep an eye on Arzaan has all credentials to upset the fancied four

My Choice:#6 Morals win 

RACE NO 4:A race for horses in class III over 1000 mts 

For reasons more personal than merit I feel that the last victory of Alecto was pretty impressive! Has to carry more weight on his back this time but still is the best horse in the fray 

There are two other last outing winners in the fray including the gate-crasher Song of Africa and the one who is inline for the  hat-trick in Dreamland,both of them are prime contenders for this race 

However having said all that two other horses catch the eye in this field,Edith Piaf and Warrior Prince ! 

Although both come out of race no 40 where Dreamland won,the latter with draw no 1 and the switch in jockey to Yash Narredu seems like the one who has better chances to take this open looking race ! The trainers other horse in this race also ran in race no 40 ! But I hope Warrior Prince doesn't disappoint 

My Choice:#4 Warrior prince for win 

RACE NO 5:A race for maiden 3 yo over 1000 mts 

 

The horse to be beaten in this race is the fav,it has all the good credentials to put up an improved show here,from a very good sire plus good track spurts plus bound for second lifetime improvement 

However Flanker irrespective of the switch in jockey has also given blazing track spurts and cannot be ignored,infact expect it to give more value. 

Lex Luthor is also being prepared systematically,personally I feel that this horse may need this run and also more ground 

Thus all this leaves us to the other horse in the fray in Himalayan Dancer ! Fourth to Shivalik Storm on debut and then lost its form,now being prepared well,lets hope Pune proves to be lucky for this got-abroad ! Its a close call between the two and my money will ride on Himalayan Dancer and hope Fortuna doesn't spoil my party 

My Choice:#3 Himalayan Dancer for win 

RACE NO 6:For 3 yo maidens over a mile 

Another cracker of a race,Atleast on paper as both the prime fancies are closely matched in Scent of a woman and Zabisco ! The latter ran a race which was run at quite a fast clip earlier on during the Mumbai season plus has been exceptional in the tracks 

Scent of a Woman also has two starts to its credit,can hope to run an improved race here 

But then friends its worth looking at a horse called Al Shamsheer who has finished third to Be Safe on debut,broke its blood vessel in its last run and now with its last spurt suggestive of a good show,worth taking a chance especially when the sire is the great Ballydoyle champion stayer Yeats! Haven't researched much about its stud record but should stay the mile easily and banking on its stamina and jockeys capabilities,an e/w chance 

My Choice:#1 Al Shamsheer win/place 

RACE NO 7:A class IV race over 1600 mts 

The two horses in Zurich and Zachafy will be at the helm of betting in this race,the first named was slowly off in its last race interfered almost all the way and still finished a good second and is the horse to be beaten here,especially because the trainer is having a mighty good run at this centre ! 

But then there is Personify who after his debut is taking an awful lot of time to run here,with the best saddle support on offer and a good trainer-jockey combo cannot be ignored here 

Of the older horses,the one that can upset is Magic Vision but to expect all three 3 yo's to fail is a little too much to ask,can place at any ones expense 

But still the horse despite having a jockey like Akshay who can beat em all is Zachary,just looking at the way this horse has been prepared,this horse is worth a bet ! Although I must admit that the gets of Kingda Ka haven't lived up to the expectations,yet on pure preparations and a positive change in equipment can hope to run a bold race and is my personal fancy for this race

My Choice:#2 Zachary for win 

Day's Best:Warrior Prince 

Double:Sailor - Morals

Upsetter:Al Shamsheer 

Investment plans for the day 

Bankroll:30,000 

Warrior Prince-win 2000 

Sailor- win 1500

Zachary win 1000 

Morals win 1000 

Himalayan Dancer win 1000 

Donata win 1000

Alshamsheer win 500 

Total investments:8000 

Note:This is just an fictional exercise for the authors own self-assessment,not a recommendation of any sort 

Have a nice day,gamble responsibly