Mumbai Invitation Weekend Day-1 28/2/15

The Invitation weekend is here,I have already posted my selections for the two Marquee races of the day,here is my analysis and selections for the remaining five races 

RACE 1:A TERMS RACE FOR 3YO HORSES OVER 1200 mts 

ETERNAL FLAME has all reasons to be optimistic about making a second straight win at mumbai,his win in the Kunigal Breeders Produce stakes was one to note,he is cutting down in trip here in this million and should go out as the most fancied horse of the day 

There is however presence of some debutants who by chance are in the classic prospect frame may cause an upset,at best place prospects the ones that catch the eye are Itscaro and Alisha's Pet

Then there is the presence of Polished Chrome who ran a very good race on debut and now with able preparations and jockey interchanged one could hope for a good show 

Hidden Soul which won on its debut beating Niobrara has been sparingly tracked and has a jockey change to P.S.Chouhan,bound for a second lifetime improvement this horse may be termed as the 'outsider' with a definite chance 

I have a good feeling about Polished Chrome,I have discounted its last run against Eternal Flame where in my perception all it did was set the pace for the latter,now on a distance it should be comfortable with and a jockey change should give a good account of itself and thus is my personal fancy 

MY CHOICE:#3 Polished Chrome Win 

RACE 2:A CLASS V RACE OVER 1600 mts

AD ASTRA who ran a faraway second to Zazou,who incidentally put up another win is now having a change in shoes and a positive switch of jockey. Thus on those two points and also being someone with a decent preparation is a strong challenger in this race 

Although there is the presence of Sharp Witted from Bangalore who is making a step down in class after what can be termed as a pretty decent effort in the upper class the presence of horses such as Administrate and Nigella and others makes this race the most open race of the day 

Administrate has two changes,one is change in equipment and the other is change in jockey,to add to it tracks are more than decent with some good horses,keep an eye 

And then there is Nigella who is getting a positive switch in jockey after a decent effort last time out,in preparation and decent form is the threat to anybody who wants to win this race 

My Choice:#3 Ad Astra Win

RACE 3:A CLASS III RACE OVER 1800 mts 

SHIVALIK SHOWERS-Front runner in the Derby,now dropping down in distance and class,change of jockey from Neeraj to Darren Williams 

SHIVALIK VIEW-Winner of its last two starts,bidding for a hat-trick with step up in trip,last win in class III (same class this I guess it comes under HRS) 

SHINING PATH-has placed many times in This class,a decent outsider here 

Lord Jim-Winner of class IV beating Hoshiyaar with Malcolm Kharadi and is now up in trip and class with Richard Hughes

These four horses look like the ones that will give a tough fight in this race,Helping Hand and Snowing are the outsiders who can hope to change the fortunes of the most fancied horses in this race 

However Lord Jim,who is making his class III debut won his last start very well and with the preparations and the jockey factor should hope to improve and is my personal fancy in this race 

MY CHOICE:#8 LORD JIM WIN 

RACE 4:THE ATILLA SPRINTERS CUP (Gr.1) OVER 1200 mts

The sprinters cup will kick off the first of five graded races which includes four races of Gr.I stature. This year will see fifteen horses fight for the title 

Here is my bit of analysis and also my personal fancy for the same 

I have to admit that sprint races of high quality have always been close affairs,for example take this very race for the last two years,Nefyn who won it two times in a row had to fight all out on both occasions,first on that day at Hastings Calcutta where it ran a blinder of a race with Jimmy Fortune aboard and then the next year it won with a shd against the likes of Dancing Prances and Speed Six 

Thus if one takes the sprinters cup as the ultimate sprint race then we have to scrutinise the recent form of the three runners in Nefyn,Dancing Prances and Speed Six

NEFYN,the winner of this very event is vying for a hat-trick at this ripe age of 9. It will surely be a statistical feat that will take some years to repeat if indeed he turns out to be succesful. He is winless after his triumph at Malakpet an year ago Infact he has raced only twice and that too in this Mumbai season. Reading too much into its absence isn't necessary as he has always been a sparingly raced horse and given his age it's understandable. He has been given two runs with the preparation to this race in mind and with the Irish pro in Colm O Donoghue in the saddle there is every reason to believe that he will be tuned to give his best perhaps for one last time in a stage as good as this.

Take Dancing Prances,after running second to Falcon in a class I handicap carrying back breaking weights over 1400,this horse struck form and a great partnership with Sandesh the duo went on to win five straight races and as such in this form it will have a lot of support. It is however a 5 yo now and the weight he should carry will be 2.5 kg higher than his last run in the same race,however the brilliant form he is in and the fact that he is the winner of Dr.S.C.JainSprinters gives him a definite edge over others 

Speed Six,who ran second at Calcutta and third at Malakpet has been an example of a consistently inconsistent horse,he has won 3 out of 5 starts he made after that. He won the Suresh Mahindra million the very next week he faltered in the Sprinters Cup. He ran a very good race last time out and as his trainer is known to be a man for the big occasions and a jockey who is now currently at his very best this season,he is quite a formidable contender in this race 

I somehow believe that horses like Brynhill who is coming into this race with a brilliant show against Dancing Prances in its last start and Solomon who didn't impress that much but nevertheless is a true contender from top stables who also have stable/owner mates with better credentials in this race are at best 'outsiders' 

Un Un Un should be respected for its form at Malakpet and as such it should not be a great surprise if it indeed raises some eye brows with its performance 

All said and done one has to put his/her money in this race taking so many things into account in this race 

Dancing Prances has been invincible in its last 5 starts,it has been winning races with some ease and is the one they all have to look out for 

Nefyn would be more of a emotional choice to me,when it won at Calcutta it gave me happiness and now there is ofcourse a certain pre race aura around it as some would be cheering for it make it an awesome three in a row at this race 

Then there is Speed Six,who has been running some in and out races showed us all his class while literally scoring an authoritative win in its last start,with the jockey factor being a positive for this track and also taking into account the age of Nefyn and the difference in weights between Dancing Prances and him with respect to last year,this horse looks like the logical choice to me. 

May the best horse Win 

My Choice:#9 Speed Six Win 

RACE 5:A CLASS II RACE OVER 1400 mts

RULE DOWN UNDER had a miserable last run to be frank,now with the preparation and BLK ON the once classic prospect who lost to the too good Speed King over this same trip at PUNE should run a good race at Mumbai here in my opinion 

Take FIBONACCI SEQUENCE who in my opinion is coming out of a very good race where Your Royal Majesty won,that was his first run in class II and as such is in a good handicap,keep an eye 

Of the two horses that come out of the race 151 where Zachary won,it is Staristocrat that will make the heads of most turn here,however Simply Sweet should run a bold race here,has been prepared well and is my personal fancy as it is placed well on handicap,has a liking to this trip

MY CHOICE:#6 SIMPLY SWEET WIN

RACE 6:THE DELTIN CASINOS STAYERS CUP (GR.1) OVER 3000 mts 

The stayers cup is the second of the five graded races for the week and the last scheduled for day 1 of the invitation weekend 

I would like to keep it short here about this race,on pure formlines Tiger Tops is the one they all have to look out for. 

Tiger Tops is undoubtedly the best filly over a galloping trip in the classic generation,this horse has been running some very good races and has held its form till its last run..... But for Be Safe it would have been a crowning year for it.... Can it travel the extra 3 furlongs! Can it bear the old proven geldings? 

There are three very good challengers in Astapi (The defending champion of this race) Windstream (Second in this very race last year and looking to make things right) and Tintinnabulation (A two time Gr.1 winner and winner over the BANGALORE St.Leger) 

Now there is a horse who could really stay in Tintinnabulation,he is in great form and has been in good nick when it mattered twice in the invitation cup. Thus my personal fancy 

My Choice:#7 Tintinnabulation Win

RACE 7:A CLASS V RACE FOR HORSES (5yo+) OVER 1000 mts 

A very very open race to end the invitation day,there are some last start winners in the fray in Beau Royale and Good Memory 

Tahrir who has been showing out in tr track spurts and with a jockey whom I have noticed to be good in 5f races has a fair chance 

Then there are the likes of Padmakosa,Stormyday,Grand March and others 

Having contemplated the chances of more than half a dozen runners I have finally chosen Blue Bay as my choice,ignore its last run and now with a switch in jockey and a seemingly good 5f horse my choice is this horse 

MY CHOICE:#5 Blue Bay Win 

DAYS BEST:LORD JIM 

GOOD BETS:SIMPLY SWEET,SPEED SIX 

Have a nice day.......