Mumbai Pre derby day Analysis and selections

Hello friends, 

                    The pre derby race day card has a well filled 10 race affair,with the Gr.3 Kunigal Breeders produce stakes as the main event for the day,here is my analysis and personal fancies for the day. 

RACE NO 1:A class IV race over 1400 mts 

The opener of the day has a good size field and has a lot of horses vying for the top honour

I personally feel that the winner should emerge from Medanito,Fianoven,Pamushana and Tempest 

Pamushana ran green on its debut and now with the change in pilot is the top contender in this race,they all have to beat this horse 

Tempest ran fifth despite a wide draw in a big field and then followed it up with a good second over a 5f trip,now with this jockey and a relatively weaker field can score  here,should place 

Medanito and Fionaven are from the same stable,the former has one run where its ownermate won handsomely,now seems to be prepared well and should be in the thick of things,the latter after the run benifit should put up an improved performance here and don't be surprised if he emerges as a gate-crashed here 

Pamushana on its solitary run and change in pilot has now attracted lower odds and also another horse with the same scenario in Medanito seems like a genuine threat to the hot fav,but Tempest should run a very bold race if one goes by its previous race and is my personal fancy for this race 

My Choice:#9 Tempest for win 

RACE NO 2:A class III race over 1200 mts 

A tricky race this as Zoom zoom and Ace angelfire both winners in their last start are taking on Analeah who has this habbit of hitting the front and surrendering and Brynhill who is very sparingly raced and is off from a mock race victory to its credit. 

Zoom Zoom's last win was in a close finish and I doubt if it can defy its penalty yet again. 

Whereas Aceangelfire won well and can be expected to score again or fail trying 

The horse that looks all set to lift this race is Analeah as it's running style is suggestive of a good show in this distance,is he horse to be beaten here 

The sparingly races Brynhill has a mock race in this season and with only that on its prep its too much of guesswork to be done on its chances here 

I personally feel that the last start winner Aceangelfire can put up a good show here and win against the most fancied horse Analeah 

My Choice:# 2 Aceangelfire for win 

RACE NO 3:A class IV race over 1200 mts 

Cactus Cash (due to its front running tactics earlier) Supertramp (failed fav now in bottom handicap with jockey switch) Samba Warrior (whose solitary run is if any proof can better its performance) look like the three contenders for this race in my view. However the last victory of Patriotic was very impressive and the fact that the latest track spurts are decent,I am inclined to take a chance on it

My Choice:#6 Patriotic for Win 

Race no 4 and Race no 5- A huge field filled race for horses 5 yo+ I am personally skipping this race 

RACE NO 6:CLASS V race over 1600 mts 

The connections of Penny Lane were ambitious enough to make the horse run in the Oaks,it finished a fair 10-12 lengths behind the winner,now taking its chances over a mile trip with a positive switch in pilot over a mile in the lowest class after facing Gr.1 opposition makes it the ultra prime contender,can it win here is to be seen 

Armel the winner over the same trip in its last start,is the dark un here as horses in form should not be ignored 

ZOLTAN and SPLENDID LIGHT along with NIRBHAYA are the three horses that can give the favoured horse a run for its money,but all said and done The Other Song has the experience to pull it off and with a change on pilot also assisted by its running style that may suit this distance is a worthy e/w bet 

MY CHOICE:#6 The Other Song Win/Place 

RACE NO 7:A RACE FOR MAIDEN 3 yo horses over 1000 mts 

DOUBLE O SEVEN but for its last run and GREAT EXPECTATION along with ARTISTE are the three horses that look like possible winners going by their previous runs 

But Shivalik Skies and Zumi Zumi are two horses with two good jockeys aboard and that can spoil the party here,especially Shivalik Skies with its recent track spurts look very promising to score a win here 

MY CHOICE:#11 Shivalik Skies for win 

RACE NO 8:A CLASS I RACE OVER 1200 mts 

Youngsters do seem to hold an edge as they are on the upgrade and can score here but however if they fail the older ANAHI,WEIZHOU will be in the thick of things 

SILVER STREAK has shown very nice improvement in handicap races,up in class and down in distance with same jockey in respect with its last run,is my follow horse and please don't ignore 

RIO was back to winning ways when it scored a easy to eye victory in the lower class,now with a upgrade in class in distance should fare well here 

Of the main possible protagonists,yes true that Amelia is receiving a chunk of weight from Dancing Prances but the latter has done exceptionally well over this distance,now goes with a change in pilot (don't know why) and track spurts are good and thus have a decent chance to pull this off 

MY CHOICE:#7 Dancing Prances win 

RACE NO 9:A TERMS RACE OVER 7f for 3 yo only (Gr.3) 

The feature event of the day and by no means an easy race to pick the winner as most have them look like having credentials to win here 

All three horses from the MAM stable Be Safe,Majestic Opinion and Top commander run with a chance, the first named is the best performed 3 yo as of now in this centre,gives weight to the whole field yet on sheer performance stands tall and is the horse to be beaten. 

TOP COMMANDER thanks to the terms of the race now gets a top jockey in bottom weight,can surprise here as its tracks are suggestive of a very good performance 

The Bangalore based Majestic Opinion gets the got-abroad jockey in its back and is quite possibly the third horse from the stable in respect with the chances,yet bloodlines of this got-abroad are promising enough 

Don Corleone who is tracking extremely well and Vision of romance whose solitary win are proof enough that they can upset Incase of the most favoured ones faltering 

But one horse that can go close to Be Safe or even topple it is the full bred sister to Mariinsky that is Schiavone,the win at Bangalore agaisnt mediocre opposition was not worth mentioning but the manner in which covered ground caught the eye and I was waiting for this horse to run again,although against an esteemed company now on bloodlines and running style appeal the most here,the jockey is having a good run in India and hope he continues the good work 

MY CHOICE:#6 Schiavone for win/place 

Race no 10:A class III race over 1200 mts 

Ultrasonic was second in the same class in itsast run,the horse runs with a fair chance here as the same jockey is retained 

RAJSAMMAN and Oaks ran MAUNA KEA are in immediate contention and the same with Feodor 

A look at the tracks and history of Isadoro suggests that it can put in a good performance too,as after its win in this distance it ran two races in extended trips and its last track spurt is highly suggestive too and thus is my personal choice for this race 

INVESTMENT PLAN FOR THE DAY 

Tempest win 1000 

Ace angelfire win 1000 

Patriotic win 1000 

THE OTHER SONG win 500 place 1000 

SHIVALIK SKIES WIN 1000

DANCING PRANCES WIN 1000

SCHIAVIONE WIN 1000 place 1500

Isadoro win 1000

Total investment:10000 

Profit/loss before this day:+30550 

Dividends as per Bangalore tote

Patriotic win 1000 25 2500 

The Other song place 1000 24 2400 

Profit/loss for day:-5100 

Overall status:30550-5100=25450