Derby Day selections and analysis-Calcutta 12/01/13

Hello friends, 

                    After a disappointing Saturday,it is time now to look ahead for Sunday with whatever that's left with my initial 10000 that is 10000-2050=7950. For my blog I will have this amount for my investment plan. 

Race no 1:A CLASS III RACE OVER A MILE 

A small field mile race to start the proceedings.

Haddock which is now coming fresh from two runs in class II is a class IV winner and placed when it ran in the same class,now runs with a positive switch in jockey 

SELF DIRECTED has age in its favour and is a same class winner a run before its last run,ran behind the too good Noble and Nice in its last start and retains the same jockey 

Dancing Dame which has earlier crossed swords with Seld directed earlier in the season is now seeming well placed in weights and add to that it has a switch in pilot to A.Sandesh,should run a good race 

Fire Falcon after posting consecutive victories found Astaire too good to handle in its last start,is a winner over 6 and 7 furlongs and running style suggests that can get this trip,retains the same jockey in Suraj Narredu 

My personal opinion is that of the four horses I prefer Haddock and Fire Falcon to fight it out,the latter especially in the hands of Suraj Narredu should run a game race in the opener of the day. 

My Choice:#2 Fire Falcon for Win 

Race no 2:A class IV race over 1400 mts 

Legends order is a horse that has raced pretty well in the upper class and to add to it is now returning close to its winning ratings,last run was forward and now with a change in jockey has a good chance in this set. 

But the 7 yo galloper may find the 4 yo trio of Fiery Ceil,Impressive glory and Piaffe in its path 

The last named two horses have earlier met each other in their last run,it was a close finish where Impressive glory and Piaffe were seperated only by 3/4 lengths.Going by the running styles of the horses on a classic day the front running Impressive Glory seems to have an advantage although by just a slight margin in my view 

Fiery Ceil has raced well in 2/3 starts in its career,with Trevor later on the saddle this is the horse they all have to beat. 

Afrah which won in the same class before putting up a dismal show and the unexposed Carnival Spirit are the two horses that can spoil the show here especially the later 

My personal preference in this race is Impressive Glory, this front runner now gets a well acclaimed rider is tracking well and is in some form,should stay on till the end with its nose in front. 

My Choice:#5 Impressive Glory for win 

Race no 3:A class IV race over 1400 mts 

Gonna Be A Rock Star which won a close race last time out is a game horse,can it extend its consistent show is something of an enigma to me,but it is a horse in some true form and can't be ignored 

Now coming to the serious contenders in this race VALEROSA,AXSTONE and MARAUDER 

The last named horse is running on demotion here,gets Sreekant on the saddle and is the horse to be beaten here 

Then there are two youngsters in VALEROSA and AXSTONE who according to me are the main two contenders for this race,the latter especially has been putting in some good prep work,with the local champion astride has a good chance to score in this race and is my personal fancy 

My Choice:#5 AXSTONE for win 

RACE NO 4:A race for maiden 3 yo horses over 1100 mts 

This one is an open race according to me as more than 3/4 of the field are debutants and in a scenario like this going through the bloodlines and track work of the horses will give us a clear idea 

The three horses that I have short listed based on that note are Climber,Marylin and Mr Gorgeous 

The last two named horses have already raced before and Marylin and found the too good Azienda on its race,thus is the main contender for this race,bred similar to classic winner Jersey Girl 

Mr Gorgeous who covered good ground on its first run now runs with a positive switch in pilot and on that count is the leading contender in this race 

But Climber a debutant who is being prepared extremely well is my choice for this race especially with the visiting jockey aboard,this juveniles chances look rosy. Trackworks are suggestive and is from a stud farm which throws out good speedy horses 

My Choice:#2 Climber for win 

Race no 5:A class III race over 1100 mts 

Sea farer which is sitting at the bottom of the scales is the horse that strikes first in this set,has age bottom handicap in its favour 

Garraro which received money in one of its run where it went down to Gallop to glory is now placed well on this race and ignoring it will be a mistake,will it run well here is anybody's guess. A good chance on logic 

Good looking and Words also look good especially the former looks very good on paper and can hope to place in this set 

The joker in the pack is obviously Rappadan  glory,thanks to the claimer on top and some good runs before its last run in my personal e/w fancy for this race

My choice:#7 Rappadan Glory for win/place 

Race no 6:A terms for 3 yo fillies only over 1200 mts 

Yes true that Deserving lady is a good debutant if one goes by its prep and the jockey declared,also the fact that it receives weight from the top 2 horses 

But my reading is that this race is purely between the top two horses in the card Azienda and Pretty Woman 

The latter being unbeatenuntil now and retaining the winning jockey and has win against relatively better company is my personal fancy for this race 

My Choice:#2 Pretty woman for win 

Race no 7:The Eveready Calcutta Derby stakes (Gr.1) over 2400 mts 

A whopping purse and a stellar field shows us that this is the race of the year without any doubt in this centre. 

The form and previous runs of the runners are well advertised and am not going to elaborate much on that this race will quite possibly in my view assert the staying class of one horse among the ten. 

Charlatan naturally comes into contention here,thanks to its ever consistent performances in the past during big races. The 2000 guineas winner now retains the same jockey and is putting in some good work,the question mark over his staying ability will be answered only on the track,I have supported him in the last and will be happy to cheer him home but I guess tomorrow may not well be his day. 

Snowdrift thanks to the jockey in the saddle looks like the immediate threat to the fancied runner (or may be fancied even more ) has the same dam of Snowscape the grey who won this very race last year,with some family links to this race I expect him to do well,but then doing what his half brother did will be an uphill task in my opinion 

Then comes Captain Courageous whose rider lodged an objection understandably so during the 2000 guineas,this got abroad is the joker in this pack as he has shown his class before but then lost his way due to various reasons,entrusted to the owners first jockey this horse runs with an outside chance,again there is a if a big IF he stays the trip 

Argiano the winner of the monsoon derby and the colts trial stakes went over a 2200 mts trip and won on New Year's Day,has been used as a pacemaker before and I do not understand what will be his role tomorrow,but he is a proven horse and may very well be prominent at the end,I give this horse a go by 

Multi Magic is a horse again from the esteemed freshman sire Multidimensonal,can he be the spoiler here is the ? He ofcourse has done well over handicap races and now will enjoy the step up in distance and with Suraj on board is the Dark'un here. Keep an eye 

The oaks heroine Artesia won a close finish against striking the only course and distance winner in this race,can she beat the boys or even the other lady in the fray with Neeraj Rawal astride is a ? 

Two horses stand out on bloodlines alone for this tripArabian Warrior and Adiella,I must say there is no doubt on the staying capability of both the horses. 

In my opinion if Arabian Warrior is given a good ride,he is the horse to be beaten has staying blood and a good burst of speed,he is my pick of the raiders 

But I believe Adiella with Sandesh the man for the big occasion on the saddle and out of a dam which stayed the distance and won the biggest race of em all is the value bet here and my first choice for this race,has ready finished second among the boys and on that note an improved performance and bloodlines to support is my personal choice for this race 

My Choice:#9 Adiella win/place 

Race no 8:A class I race over a mile 

Arktourous the winner of the super mile and a 9 yo gusty horse will carry the top weight in this race,and he is the horse to be beaten in this race 

River Blitz who got the better off him over 7f is now piloted by Suraj despite the winning penalty this freak horse is the immediate threat (check his records to know why I call this horse a freak). 

But these two experienced campaigners should be vary of Lantana Lady who is coming out of a graded race,carrying low weights and is a genieune threat to all 

Su Chaliyo and Berlusconi are the other horses who on their day can topple the more fancied runners 

But Arktourous in my opinion simply towers over this field in my opinion and over a trip that's considered his domain,this horse with Alford atop has a brilliant chance to score here 

My Choice:#1 Arktourous for win 

Race no 9:A class II race over 1100 mts 

RACE NO 9:A class II race over 1100 mts 

Gallop to glory is well rested after its last win over class III and has the form and class to put up a good show in this set 

Poles apart is the horse to be taken care of in this set as he has been good in class I now on demotion is the default contender here 

The other youngsters in the fray in Conquest and Macedonian also stand a good chance here 

But alcander can take advantage of his running style and shoot to the friend and the horse (if any) that goes last him will be the winner 

My personal fancy for this however is my follow horse Gallop to Glory,simply because this horse has shown some good form and can extend his winning ways here or Atleast place 

My Choice:#6 Gallop to glory win/place 

Day's Best:Arktourous 

Good bets:AXSTONE/Pretty Woman/FIRE FALCON 

Investments for tomorrow:credit left 7950

AXSTONE WIN 1500 

Arktourous win 2000 place 1000

Adiella win 500 place 500 

Pretty woman win 1000 

Fire falcon win 1000 

Climber win 950

Have a nice day,gamble responsibly