Pune Races 08/09/2013 Analysis and Selections

Hello friends, 

                    A card of 8 races have been framed for Sunday,with The Southern Command Trophy as the feature event of the day. 

Race no 1:A race for horses in class IV (5yo+) over 1400 mts 

Matter of heart,Samay Balwan and Star Builder are the three last outing winners out of the eleven runners in this set,with the former being the winner in the same class and the other two runners are up on promotion.Star builder's win was pretty easy last time out in the hands of Dashrath Singh now on promotion win looks difficult,Samay Balwan just managed to hold on in the lower class,the same can be said of this horse too 

Thus I guess the winner should probably come from this set of horses Scaramouche,Zaracha,Guns N roses,Brave fighter 

Brave fighter ran third behind Cypress point during its only run this season,gets Trevor Patel in the saddle,placed well on scales here may spring a surprise 

Zaracha ran second to Queen's kiss over 1200 mts,running with a penalty for that has a decent chance to score here and should run into place money 

Guns N roses ran in a class IV million over 1800 mts and placed 6th,now gets a massive switch in jockey,has won over shorter trips thus may find this distance to its undoing, yet was seen on board both the times Sandesh was atop,this intent is clearly on the positive side 

Scaramouche won its last start in the Mumbai Winter season over 1200 mts,then has two runs at Pune of which its last run over 1200 mts in the upper class where in it finished just a shade under 5 lengths behind the winner,now gets a switch in jockey to C.S.Jodha and should give a good account of itself here 

A very competitive race to get going with the proceedings,my personal fancy in this race is Scaramouche,purely because of his improved run in the upper class last time out and a switch to inform jockey C.S.Jodha

My Choice:#4 Scaramouche for Win

Race no 2:A race for Class III horses over 2400 mts (3yo+) 

Two last outing winners in the top and bottom of the scales respectively in a field of five for this race,three of them are winners in this season too 

Woven Dreams vs Il Moran is the the one battle within the race one must first try to figure out,yes the scales are now in favour of IL Moran but Woven Dreams won coming from behind over 2000 mts and now with 400 mts more to go I guess that Woven Dreams may very well have the upper hand 

Word Of honour is a pretty decent performer over long distances and it has the weights in favour too thanks to the claimer on top,all these come into calculations if one forgets its last run and if one goes by that is a no hoper here and I am of that opinion too 

Then comes Antonious MAXIMUS who just had the better of Razeena over the same trip,penalised rather heavily for that effort and is now seen on promotion with the same jockey astride,again this horse can't win in my opinion 

Then there is Mars the lone three year old in the field,had won over 1800 mts in class IV and had one run in this present class where it ran third to colossus over 2000 mts,now gets the winning jockey back on board. 

IL Moran appeals here purely because it is only one amongst the four fancied horses in the field of five to enjoy a rather non winning handicap this season,I may be wrong but I have doubts about this horses ability to do well over this trip 

Thus it boils down to Woven Dreams Mars and Razeena,the first and last named horses are last start winners,my personal fancy is however Mars,the reason being the dam has produced some nice horses that have done reasonably well over a mile and a half,has the services of a top jockey who is on song and had a feel of the class in its last start and can pull it off here 

My Choice:#2 Mars for Win

Race no 3:A class IV race over a mile (3yo) 

On first glance and going by relative form there is no doubt the prime contender here is Insignia (ran behind Alaindair,Falco Nero and Ministerian) and interestingly form of all the above said three horses have held good so far,and has the brightest chance to shed its maiden status here 

But then a closer look at the field reveals that it is not too easy as there are two more horses in the fray who can pose a serious threat to Insignia,one amongst them is Forest Vision who ran a good second behind Rio earlier this season was also seen running in a Million Race subsequently where it ran behind Providence,the wins of rio thereafter puts this horse in contention here 

There is also Morals which came from behind to score a good second to the seemingly too-good SWASHBUCKLER a couple of weeks ago,if that run was any indication then can upset the applecart of the favourite here 

My Choice:#1 Morals for e/w bet 

Race no 4:A class III race over 1000 mts (5yo+) 

This race has Celcius which has been a consistent performer this season,had finished third to Garraro over the same trip earlier this season,after that having run twice in the lower class twice and placed second in its last run now runs here over its pet trip and has a decent chance to score here. 

Titeliest,Free Verse and In The Limelight are three last outing winners here,out of which the first named won impressively and can give a good show here too. 

This race also has Encore who had earlier finished second over the same trip in its last but run in the same class,has a switch of jockey to N.S.Parmar and has been seen regularly in the trial tracks should run a very bold race in my opinion 

My Choice:#4 Encore for e/w bet 

Race no 5:The Southern Command Trophy (Gr.3) [3yo+] over 1600 mts 

With the withdrawl of Hachiko the field is reduced to nine runners here. 

An interesting race this over a mile as there is Commander who is incidentally a winner of the Pune Derby last year and is the only Gr.1 winner in this set,if he can find this distance to his liking then can be a threatening force to all here despite his weight,his only run this season has earned him a win and his track spurt shows that he is in fine condition 

However there is a strong possibility that the stable would be more than hopeful about the chances of their other runner Neona. This filly started off the season by posting a victory over 1400 mts Class I race,Demonstrator who also runs in this race had the better of Supreme Star in its next outing thereby strengthening the form line,then it ran second to Panamera at the fillies and Mares Stakes over 1800 mts,she had earlier won over this trip at this very race course beating Commander last year and thus one can't write this horse off yet 

Then there is Supreme Star [Shivalik Hero] whose best performance till date was its second to Commander during the Pune Derby last year,not to forget his second to Machiavellianism in the Indian 2000 guineas,his last run was lacklustre yet I believe has the class in him to consider him in this race. 

This race will also see the renewal of the battle between Rajastan Royals and Stormtracker,I believe the former did so well to match the latter last time out but over this trip I feel it is difficult for him to score,this brings Stormtracker into the scene,who is in my opinion the most game horse in this set,a look at his record will let us know that he has never been beaten over 1400 mts on the track (lost once to Maple Star at the stewards room)  and has won his only start over a mile,now gets a change of jockey to Trevor Patel with respect to its last run

This race also has the lights of Winston yuville and Star of Gibraltar the former is the stablemate of the favourite and the latter had a forgettable last run,will be surprised if any of the three win here 

In my opinion this race has to be won by Stormtracker the only chink in its armour however is it is relatively unexposed over a mile,but had a wonderful Bangalore season and is yet to lose in its last three starts after its debacle in the Hyd Winter Derby,Neona shapes as the only serious adversary here to the Stormtracker 

My Choice:#5 Stormtracker for Win 

Race no 6:A class IV race over 1200 mts (3 yo+) 

This race has Rewarding Desire who after winning had lost its way,was seen missing the kick during its first run at Pune season and was seen finishing fourth to Bombardier over a shorter sprint,is the only 3 yo in the fray and should run a good race 

But however there is Ice Skater who had run third in its last run and now gets a switch in jockey to Sandesh and Super Satin who gets a change in jockey to Trevor Patel had a decent if not too good last outing 

But the horse that is in some form here is Negredo,who in his last two starts had run behind Ainra (2nd) and Arusha (4th) now appeals strongly on weights as the trainer had opted for a claimer on top. 

Thus although there is only one 3 yo in the fray in Rewaeding Desire,my personal fancy here is Negredo who is in some form and with the weights he will carry now is a danger to the best herein

My Choice:#6 Negredo for E/w bet

Race no 7:A race for maiden 3 yo horses over 1000 mts 

This field has four debutants and among the horses which have run Fontanelle towers over the rest,there is a change of equipment to TS on as in its last but one run was seen travelling well but was veering rather too alarmingly on the outside,now has a fair chance to score easily here 

Of the debutants Fabrizio seems to be the one that can do well here but as there are too many horses interconnected and going by the record of the trainer Fontanelle will be a logical choices but for the odds on offer would be a good bet 

My choice:#8 Fontanelle for win 

Race no 8:A race for class IV horses over 1200 mts (3yo+) 

Trump Card Alecto and Matrioshka are the three horses that appeal here,the former is a winner this season and had placed again on its next start,with a claimer on top has the weights in favour too 

Matrioshka on the other hand has relatively good form compared to the rest of the field and has a decent chance here 

But Alecto has been prepared well with a mockrace and is followed up with some spurts,despite being the first run this season should do well here 

My Choice:#4 Alecto for win 

Day's Best:Mars 

Double:Stormtracker-Alecto 

Upsetter:Morals 

Have a nice day,gamble responsibly