THE INVITATION WEEKEND DAY-1

Hello friends, 

                    Eight races with two Gr.1's among them ensures that the first day of the invitation weekend will be a good competitive day of racing,here is my personal analysis and preferences for the day 

RACE NO 1:A RACE FOR HORSES RATED UPTO 50 over 1600 mts 

A small six horses filled race to start the day,it is no secret that the top weighted Patriotic is in some fine form,he is a Mumbai based horse and may very well carry the public purse 

He has 5 rivals to compete against of which the last start winner Vijays Splendour,Jerell and Amazing Power 

Vijays splendour is now dropping down in distance with the same jockey aboard after its win over 12f trip,has decent form and is a strong contender here 

Amazing power a winner in the lower class and ran nowhere  over the 2400 trip against VIJAY's Splendour,now gets a massive switch in jockey and also the lowest weight carrier in the field,can spring a surprise 

However Jerell which is putting some decent performances over the last two-three runs now gets a hard rider in Christopher in the saddle,should run a big race here in my opinion 

My Choice:#5 Jerell win/place 

RACE NO 2:A race for horses rated upto 50 over 1400 mts 

Little love the Calcutta horse,which ran with the pace during the initial stages and gave up latter,now gets a positive switch in saddle to Suraj Narredu is obviously a strong contender and the horse to beaten here,however he has two horses in my opinion which can pose a threat to him Yksi Yksi Yksi which won its second career run is one amongst that,the horse has won over 1200 in good fashion and now over 1400 with another top notch jockey can fare well and the horse it vanquished Tamanna which again repeated its performance in the next race where it cut down the leeway to Homely helo is the horse that may surprise in this set 

Little love hasn't run a race after its 2000 guineas run,however it has a mockrace at Calcutta to is credit,no recent tracks at Hyderabad is one negative according to me and also the horse has been raced over sprints and 7f is a trip he won't be too comfy with in my opinion. 

This the winner should be from the other two horses I have mentioned and Yksi Yksi Yksi has a decent to good chance to score a win here provided the odds are good,worth a fling 

My Choice:#2 Yksi Yksi Yksi win 

RACE NO 3:A race for horses rated upto 50 over 1200 mts 

Mr.Glorious after some listless runs now gets a massive switch in saddle support and because of that will be in focus 

Pakat Pakat Pakat also gets switch in saddle support after its win after winner disqualification and looking at its running style is certainly a threat to others 

Mukhtar has run some game races over the season and in the recent past,the jockey aboard is a very good apprentice and should be in the thick of action 

The Darkhorse here is True Friend who has run some game races before its last run and with a hard rider up on the saddle has a good chance to place and can upset too 

My Choice:#4 Pakat Pakat Pakat win 

RACE NO 4:For horses rated upto 75 over 1400 mts 

Indian Touch has had a very good Mumbai season,even in its last run wasn't disgraced in defeat as the horse that beat it ran behind Amelia over 1200 before scoring a thumping victory over Class I opponents last week,thus is a very hot horse here. Two factors the first being the jockey on board and the weight it carries are dampeners,odds are good and it depends on what one thinks about the two factors I mentioned will be the deciding factor here 

Of its main challengers Triumphant and Amistad who is now under the charge of a Bangalore based trainer come into the fray,it is almost certain that Amistad on these weights and this jockey is a horse one cannot ignore on past records,yet why the change in stables and ownership is a ? 

The Hyderabadi based Ray Of Light (Ace-Radiate) has won all three races with ease in its career so far,facing very good opposition now,yet I feel this horse should see through all dangers as it comes from a dam that has thrown a modern great and it has proved its worth by winning three races with relative ease,I guess if odds are good 3/1 or above worth a shot for bloodlines,bottom weight,form and value 

My Choice:#10 Ray of light for win 

Race no 5:THE STAYERS CUP GR.1 over 3000 mts 

The first of the four Gr.1's to be held over this weekend,the winner should in most probability come from these three horses in my opinion 

Native Knight yes you have heard me right,its our Knight again. Age and form are against it but mind you this horse has won in this very city if not the track in the recent past and has oodles of class over this trip and is still a live threat to one and all 

Wind Stream this horse has been playing bridesmaid all along,second in Indian derby,second in Golconda St.Leger and second in the Indian St.Leger Gr.1. With Tintinnabulation and An Acquired Taste out of contention and Super Storm being out of form (will totally surprise me if it wins today) Wind Stream has strong reasons to be supported here despite its last run where it lost despite receiving weight from a horse which was rated inferior to it 

OCAVANGO will be the dark horse here,has beaten the Knight over 2800 in the Byculla Club Trophy which is considered to be a prep for this race,gets a huge change in saddle support to a jockey who is in sublime form oflate and should be the one that could surprise if any. 

Keep an eye on Camorra too and don't ignore this horse in your pools 

I personally feel that WindStream on sheer class should manage to win in this field,the youngsters may find the trip a bit taxing although I must admit the last win of Captain Courageous was very impressive to the eye 

My Choice:#8 Windstream For Win 

RACE NO 6:The Japan Trophy (4yo+) over 1400 mts 

Always Bullish is a horse in form spectacular after beating classy horses in its previous runs and is a strong contender here,yes even at these weights 

The four Bangalore challengers in Supreme Regime Ratham Jersey Girl and Madame Bovary are expected to challenge the local brigade rather fiercely. 

 

Palm Springs and Chal Bhai Chal also have recent relative form and strong support and thus makes it the most interesting and competitive race of the card 

My personal fancy however is Ratham as the filly may be better suited over this distance and I expect it to run well here 

My Choice:#7 Ratham For win/Place 

RACE NO 7:THE SPRINTERS CUP GR.1 over 1200 mts 

The winner of this race should emerge from this trio of Speed Six,Mariinsky and Dancing Phoenix 

I have ignored Nefyn as its previous runs were not so impressive but then do remember it has the class to overhaul them all but then its too much to ask

Now coming back to the three horses I short listed Speed Six won its lead ups well and in my opinion is the prime contender for this race,carrying the Silks of Dr.Mallya this horse was a close second last time out and with form to backup is the horse to be beaten here 

Dancing Phoenix and Mariinsky come out of the same race,DP is a horse which shows a lot of initial speed and can surprise a lot of people if it does well here but not me as I feel this horse has it in him to do well here,Mariinsky was a bit unlucky or not interested in its last run,has a very good chance to win this race on sheer class alone,yes how can one ignore an Indian classic winner even over a trip that may not suit her 

My Choice:#12 Mariinsky for win 

Race no 8:Terms race for 3 yo only over 1200 mts 

Maisha while finishing second to both Shivalik Storm and Be safe will have maximum support and rightly so 

Carlton,Mandarian,Country's pride and Nimfea all are possible contenders in this race,on past record Maisha stands tall but I would like to take a small e/w chance on Nimfea as it has good bloodlines 

My Choice:#8 Nimfea for win/place 

Day's Best:Mariinsky 

Double:Windstream/Ray of Light 

Investment plans for the day 

Ratham win 1000 place 1500 

Windstream win 2000 

Ray of light win 2000 

Mariinsky win 3500 

Total investment 10000 (will post returns based on Bangalore tote dividends) 

Have a nice day,gamble responsibly