Mumbai 09/02/14 Analysis and personal choices

Hello friends, 

                    The Mumbai card on Sunday has 10 races with two Gr.2 races as the features of the day,here is my analysis and personal preferences of the card. 

RACE NO 1:A Class IV race over a mile 

Both Malkia and First and Only One  won their previous starts over the 7 f trip,the former won with a powerful finish in a good timing and retains the same jockey,the manner of victory of the latter was also good,but now goes with a change in jockey 

Ucheshwara which finish third in its last run over the mile,and now with a good gate practise and a very positive change in the jockey aboard,comes right into contention here 

Ancient Warrior which is coming back after finishing fourth to Domingi in the higher class also runs with a chance here 

Fleetwood Mac which ran a decent third to Superlicious is well placed on relative scales in this race,with Trevor to guide its fortunes coupled by its impressive trackworks oflate stands a bright chance in this set 

Although a winner in the same class should not be ignored,I am going with Fleetwood Mac whose last run was suggestive over the 7f trip and with the change in jockey and impressive track spurts,this one stands a good if not an outstanding chance in this race 

My Choice:#7 Fleetwood Mac for win 

Race no 2:A race for 3 yo maidens over 1400 mts 

Zurich,Nanuk and Discourse have all run in the same race last time out and all three go out now with change in pilots,the recent track spurts suggest that Zurich is in good nick and is the horse to be beaten here. 

Of the debutants,two horses in Swift and Grenadine appeal,the latter especially is a got-abroad who has been tracking with a class I animal in Demonstrator and if the odds are favourable worth an each way chance 

My Choice:#4 Grenadine for win/place 

RACE NO 3:A class II race over 2000 mts 

Montreal the vanquisher of To the manor born who filled the judges frame on its very next run in the Indian Oaks Gr.1 has been is very fine form,the track spurts are reassuring too,going over an extended trip 

It has to take on Trance whose last few races were in graded company and coming back to this class,I personally feel that she is well placed on the scales here 

Negotiator which is a course and distance winner in its last start in the lower class,has proved that it can stay the trip and course winner too,can it repeat its performance in this class is a ? 

Hidden Goodness whose third to Commander in the same trip was a brave effort in one of its earlier runs and with Trevor in the saddle is the dark horse in this field 

Although Montreal on form looks invincible,Trance for the sheer class of horses it has matched strides with deserves a chance here,its last run over the Oaks trip at Bangalore saw it running well till the bend at Bangalore also add to the fact that it is receiving weight from Montreal,deserves a chance bet 

My Choice:#5 Trance for win 

RACE NO 4:A race for 3 yo maidens over 1000 mts 

Locarno which ran three weeks ago,now enjoys a massive switch in jockey and despite the fact that it has not been tracked is the horse to be beaten in this field 

Simply divine which has two runs to its credit is also now being ridden by the stables first jockey and as such appeals on sheer preparation alone 

Of the youngsters Draco appeals the lot,and coming from a sire who is throwing out winners in shorter distances can hope to run a good race 

Locarno which ran quite a forward race should relish the change in saddle support and can run a big race,if odds are acceptable worth a shot,my criteria would be above 14/10 

MY CHOICE:#2 Locarno for win 

RACE NO 5:A class V race over 1400 mts 

Just by chance and Porto Banus are both demotees after running a race ir two in the upper class following their Maiden campaigns,the solitary track spurt of the former is impressive and thus shapes itself as a top contender here 

Unlike these two Feast of Love is jumping into this race straight from maiden campaign,the gap between its last run and this run tells that the horse is well rested and is tracking decently too,can hope to run a good one here 

Then there is Indispensable who has a mock race win to its prep,can it win here in an actual race after a layoff of over 100 days from real racing is a point to ponder,yet on back of that mockrace win stands a good chance to place in this set 

Argyle Pink whose last two runs over 1200 and a mile respectively were decent enough,retains the regular jockey aboard and over this trip in this set can better it's performance 

Tuscania which has three runs this season had run a fairly good second on its last run,facing some youngsters in with a chance in this race yet purely on its last effort and the claimer on board can hope to fare better here,keep an eye on the weights as there is no track spurts after its last run 

The dark horse if any in this race is Balinga,ran a good fourth last time out and covered good ground in the straight,now with extended distance and a change to a claimer can upset here [note for pools]

The very fact that Porto Banus's last run after a long lay off was decent if not great and now it is seeing a fairly easy opposition is my personal preference for this race 

MY CHOICE:#2 Porto Banus for Win 

RACE NO 6:A class III race over 1400 mts 

The Hello! classic on paper seems like a hotly contested race to be frank with you. 

Oriental Rocky,Victoria Falls and Quest for love all come out from the same race

Oriental Rocky ran a commendable second,change in jockey to stables Kaviraj Singh and has gone up slightly in weights,fluent winner in class IV before its class III campaign. 

Victoria Falls ran fourth last time out,now enjoys a bottom handicap top jockey combination and is the horse to look out for in this race,the horse to beat 

The three other horses in the fray Trisara (a failed fav in its last run) Hawker (which runs after a long lay off) and Mars (which set the pace in the Ruia and led till the last 3 furlongs) all come into the picture 

MARS which has ran with very good horses,set the pace in the Ruia cup over 2000 mts,although the field was small the pace was quick and that kind of a rac is just a dress reharsal for a race like this,with that show and a change in pilot to stables first jockey  Sreekant,is my value bet of the day as I believe will get decent odds for this horse,cover in place too 

My Choice:#4 Mars for win/place 

RACE NO 7:A race for 3 yo maidens over 1000 mts 

Hudson Hawk which ran second to War Command with its change in pilot to Trevor Patel,is the leading contender in this race 

Himalayan Dancer which now enjoys a switch in saddle support to Srinath,is the immediate danger to the well fancied favourite 

However Falkner bred similar to Silken Touch and ridden by ace jockey Chouhan is the fluke in this race,personally will skip this race 

RACE NO 8:THE S.C.JAIN SPRINTERS CHAMPIONSHIP over 1200 mts 

NEFYN who is the defending champion of this sprinters race is in the fray again this year,unlike last year this time he is not however coming into this race like last year,in pink of form yet he has the class,if he can give the youngsters a beating he will be the one to look for at Hyderabad 

However the four youngsters in the fray may very well fight for the top honours 

In my opinion Mariinsky the classy Gr.1 winner this season over the mile trip may find this distance a but sharp for her liking 

DANCING PHOENIX is placed reasonably well on the scales here and can upset as he possesses some good speed and likes this distance too 

However Amelia and Rosie Sunshine are the two horses that look like taking this race,the latter in its last run has clocked excellent timing and the former won in class II company very easily. Amelia like her stablemate is also a graded winner over a mile twice,however her last run and the spurt she showed caught my eye and only on that count ignoring all other factors,this horse is my personal fancy for this race 

MY CHOICE:#7 Amelia For Win 

RACE NO 9:The Byramjee Jeejeebhoy Eclipse Stakes of India Gr.2 over 2000 mts 

MASTER SHIFU which won its last race after repeated failures earlier is a top contender in this race,as the terms again are favourable and it goes up in distance with the same jockey aboard 

The challenge will primarily come from these three horses in 

TO The Manor Born who ran a good fourth in the Gr.1 Indian oaks and is now seen in the bottom of the scales,showed great promise early in its career and with the terms favourable can expect to run a good race however a win against seasoned campaigners won't be a walk in the park 

Commander the Gr.1 Pune derby winner in 2012,is running over a trip that suits him and also being partnered by the jockey that has won the big race with him,comes into this race with good form although conceding weight to most of the field,has a fair chance to succeed here 

Torolocco the Bangalore challenger has a benefit of a run in this track when it ran over the 1800 mts,now with added distance and a change in pilot to Sandesh,despite conceding weights all around has the class to overhaul them all 

The winner should in most probability come from these four horses,my personal fancy however in this race is Master Shifu as it has struck form and now can score here given the fact that the terms are in favour of it

MY CHOICE:#4 Master Shifu for Win 

RACE NO 10:A RACE FOR CLASS IV HORSES OVER 1200 mts 

A very big field in this specially slated race for horses for class IV and a rich purse to the winner 

SHYGIRL which found the winning post a bit late in its last start runs here again with a fighting chance and so does Dark Knight who till now has proved itself to be lacking the final gasp of effort to win. 

Then there is Adios Amigo from the top stables and last outing fluent winner in Tahrir. 

I believe Angel In the Sky and Four star General although still maidens should run a good race here,the former especially is drawn 11 has a run benifit this season and has run behind a ADAM last time out,can hope for a good show in this large field especially as the track spurts are very good and has a good jockey aboard 

MY CHOICE:#10 Angel in the sky for win/place 

INVESTMENT PLANS FOR THE DAY 

FLEETWOOD MAC WIN 1500 

AMELIA WIN 2000 MASTER SHIFU WIN 2000 

MARS WIN 1000 Place 1500 

Grenadine win 500 place 1000 

Porto Banus win 1000 trance win 1500 

Investment:12000 (will post progress report based on Bangalore dividends) 

Have a nice day,gamble responsibly 

PORTO BANUS WITHDRAWN:1000 

Amelia win 2000 30 6000 

Profit/loss for the day:-5000 

Total balance:+11700 

Time to bounce back! Will meet with the next investment plan till then take care folks